Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 40.03%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 30.3% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 2-1 (7.7%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (11.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Deportivo Maldonado would win this match.