World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Asia | First Round | 1st Leg

Oct 12, 2023 at 1pm UK

Hong Kong Stadium (Hong Kong)

Hong Kong
4 - 0
Bhutan

(Hong Kong win 4-2 on aggregate)

Udebuluzor (10', 16'), Chan (28'), Norbu (35' og.)

FT(HT: 4-0)

Dorji (72')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Asia First Round clash between Hong Kong and Bhutan.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bhutan

Last Game: Macao 0-1 Bhutan
Wednesday, September 6 at 12.30pm in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 57.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Bhutan had a probability of 19.76%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Bhutan win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hong Kong would win this match.

Result
Hong Kong	Draw	Bhutan
57.57% ( 12.49)	22.67% ( -4.68)	19.76% ( -7.81)

Both teams to score 52.38% (

5.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.34% (

11.3)

46.66% (

-11.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.07% (

9.73)

68.93% (

-9.73)

Hong Kong Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.06% (

9.69)

15.94% (

-9.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.79% (

15.31)

45.21% (

-15.31)

Bhutan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.31% (

-0.93)

37.69% (

0.93)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.54% (

-0.92)

74.47% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Hong Kong 57.55%

Bhutan 19.76%

Draw 22.67%

Hong Kong	Draw	Bhutan
1-0 @ 11.03% ( -1.79) 2-0 @ 10.12% ( 1.39) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 1.15) 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 2.24) 3-1 @ 6.05% ( 2.08) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( 0.97) 4-0 @ 2.85% ( 1.5) 4-1 @ 2.78% ( 1.43) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.68) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.68) 5-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.65) Other @ 2.28% Total : 57.55%	1-1 @ 10.76% ( -2.07) 0-0 @ 6.01% ( -3.41) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.45) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.3) Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.67%	0-1 @ 5.86% ( -3.57) 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -1.17) 0-2 @ 2.86% ( -1.86) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.43) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.11) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.64) Other @ 1.58% Total : 19.76%