World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Jan 28, 2022 at 12am UK
Independence Park
Jamaica1 - 2Mexico
We said: Jamaica 1-1 Mexico
Mexico are without the services of a couple of key players and that could play into the hands of a Jamaican side in need of points, but with three of their last four competitive matches ending level, we think that the Reggae Boyz may have to settle for another draw on Thursday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 42.76%. A win for Jamaica had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.71%). The likeliest Jamaica win was 1-0 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jamaica | Draw | Mexico |
| 30.73% | 26.51% | 42.76% |
| Both teams to score 51.19% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
