We said: Nepal 0-2 Bahrain
Bahrain have come agonisingly close to qualifying for the World Cup on a couple of occasions within the past two decades, and have consistently punched above their weight at recent Asia Cups.
Nepal, on the other hand, are clearly minnows at this stage of qualifying and may struggle to score a single goal across six matches. We expect a comfortable victory for the visitors.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahrain win with a probability of 50.81%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 21.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahrain win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.9%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Nepal win it was 1-0 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bahrain would win this match.