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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 39.53%. A win for Doncaster Rovers had a probability of 34.45% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.71%). The likeliest Doncaster Rovers win was 0-1 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
39.53% ( 0.51) | 26.01% ( -0.03) | 34.45% ( -0.49) |
Both teams to score 53.95% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.57% ( 0.03) | 50.43% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.63% ( 0.03) | 72.36% ( -0.03) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.91% ( 0.28) | 25.08% ( -0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.23% ( 0.39) | 59.76% ( -0.4) |
Doncaster Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.01% ( -0.28) | 27.98% ( 0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.37% ( -0.36) | 63.62% ( 0.35) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Doncaster Rovers |
1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 3.1% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.58% Total : 39.53% | 1-1 @ 12.36% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.07% Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.01% | 0-1 @ 8.94% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 7.87% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.81% Total : 34.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 30 | 24 | 59 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 37 | 7 | 52 |
3 | Notts County | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 50 |
4 | AFC Wimbledon | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 20 | 19 | 48 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 48 |
6 | Port Vale | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 48 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 47 |
8 | Salford City | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 45 |
9 | Chesterfield | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 42 |
10 | Grimsby Town | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 42 |
11 | MK Dons | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 38 |
12 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 38 |
13 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 28 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 37 |
14 | Swindon TownSwindon | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 37 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 37 | 35 | 2 | 36 |
16 | Bromley | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 36 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 33 |
18 | Gillingham | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 32 |
19 | BarrowBarrow | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 41 | -16 | 30 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 29 |
22 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 26 |
23 | Morecambe | 29 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 23 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 46 | -24 | 21 |
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