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Preview: Miami Open: Alex de Minaur vs. Joao Fonseca - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Monday's Miami Open third-round match between Alex de Minaur and Joao Fonseca, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Joao Fonseca aims for consecutive top-20 victories as he faces Alex de Minaur in Monday's third-round match at the Miami Open.

The Brazilian teenager played impressively to dispatch Ugo Humbert in round two, but the Australian star and world No. 11 will present a sterner challenge.


Match preview

Joao Fonseca reacts at the Miami Open on March 22, 2025© Imago

Fonseca faced no break points in Saturday's impressive 6-4, 6-3 triumph over Humbert, setting up a first meeting with De Minaur on the ATP Tour.

That victory, the 18-year-old's 22nd overall this year and ninth at tour level, saw him surpass last year's second-round performance in Madrid and a recent second-round showing in Indian Wells.

Having reached the third round in Miami, Fonseca, 18, now aims to progress to his maiden fourth round at a Masters event in his third appearance at this level.

The world No. 60 enters Monday night's match seeking consecutive top-20 wins for the second time in his career — the teen previously triumphed over Arthur Fils at last year's Next Gen Finals and Andrey Rublev in Australia — but for the first time in the same season.

Given the anticipated partisan support, the sensation will back himself for another upset to set up a fourth-round match with Matteo Berrettini or Zizou Bergs.

Alex de Minaur in action at the Indian Wells Masters on March 12, 2025© Iconsport

Aiming to avoid falling victim to an opponent eight years his junior, the 10th seed and world No. 11 seeks his 17th victory of 2025 to match last year's run in Miami.

However, the Australian player has not won three matches in succession at any event since reaching the Rotterdam final in early February, where he fell in three sets to first-time champion Carlos Alcaraz.

Since that disappointment in the Netherlands, De Minaur was defeated by Rublev in Doha after wins over Roman Safiullin and Botic van de Zandschulp and was ousted by Francisco Cerundolo in Indian Wells after victories over David Goffin and Hubert Hurkacz, either side of an early exit to veteran Marin Cilic in Dubai.

Hoping to end an ongoing streak without three wins on the spin, the Australian No. 1, whose second-round win over Yunchaokete Bu was his fourth-ever success in the Florida-based event, aims for a fifth overall to equal his career-best 2024 run in Miami and improve a current 4-5 record at the tournament.


Tournament so far

Alex de Minaur:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Yunchaokete Bu 6-4 6-4

Joao Fonseca:

First round: vs. Learner Tien 6-7[1] 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Ugo Humbert 6-4 6-3


Head To Head

Both players meet for the first time on the ATP Tour, with Fonseca seeking consecutive wins over players in the top 20 and his fourth overall, while De Minaur aims to advance to the competition's last 16 in back-to-back years.

The Brazilian teenager's 22-4 record in 2025 is superior to the 10th seed's 16-5 results, though the 18-year-old trails at tour-level events (9-4).

De Minaur enters Monday night's match with a 10-1 record against players outside the top 50 in 2025 and 24-3 over the last 52 weeks, highlighting the Australian's impressive record against lower-ranked opponents.


SM words green background

We say: Fonseca to win in three sets

Having already demonstrated his ability to defeat elite players with his first top-10 victory over Rublev at the Aussie Open, Fonseca, backed by a supportive crowd in Florida, should edge out De Minaur and advance to his maiden fourth-round contest at Masters level.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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