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Preview: Frances Tiafoe vs. Dan Evans - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Almaty Open second-round match between Dan Evans and Frances Tiafoe, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Familiar foes will reunite in the second round of the Almaty Open on Thursday, as Frances Tiafoe and Dan Evans cross paths for the ninth time in their careers.

The top-seeded Tiafoe bypassed the first round, while his British colleague - who came through qualifying - dispatched Taro Daniel in straight sets to end a miserable run of results on the ATP Tour.


Match preview

Frances Tiafoe pictured on October 7, 2024© Imago

Fresh from another standout run at his home Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows - equalling his previous best performance at a major by reaching the semi-finals of the 2024 US Open, losing to countryman Taylor Fritz - Tiafoe's recent displays have been nothing to write home about.

The world number 15 did get the better of Daniil Medvedev at the latest Laver Cup, although he was conquered by Alexander Zverev in his following battle before a surprise early exit in Tokyo, losing in straight sets to Brandon Nakashima in round one.

A jaunt to Shanghai for the latest Masters event followed for Tiafoe, who after receiving a bye into the second round was a convincing victor over Chinese world number 440 Yi Zhou, only to fail to cling onto a one-set advantage against Roman Safiullin in the third round.

However, Tiafoe made headlines for the wrong reasons after that three-hour slog, screaming "F*** you man! F*** you!" at the chair umpire after being given a time violation in the deciding tie-breaker, before Safiullin's 17th ace of the day clinched victory for the Russian.

Tiafoe's explosive rant is expected to land him in hot water with the ATP - the consensus is that a five-figure fine will be coming his way - but a cheque for $157,695, approximately £121,000, will come his way should he win his fourth career singles title in Kazakhstan.

Great Britain's Daniel (Dan) Evans reacts at the Davis Cup on September 11, 2024© Imago

A player who has never been far from the centre of controversy during his lengthy career either, Evans finally experienced that winning feeling on the ATP Tour once again earlier this week, overcoming Japan's Daniel in straight sets for his first top-level win since the US Open.

The 34-year-old bested Daniel 6-2 7-6[4] in the first round of the Almaty Open, taking one hour and 51 minutes to complete the job after one of his finest performances in recent memory, hitting nine aces and winning 80% of points behind his first serve.

Evans - who beat home favourite Amir Omarkhanov and China's Bu Yunchaokete in qualifying just to make it to the main draw - also saved four of the five break points that his Japanese foe managed to fashion in a victory that ought to have done wonders for his morale.

The Briton also made it through qualifying at the Shanghai Masters before a first-round loss to Thiago Seyboth Wild, which came in the wake of a mediocre Davis Cup campaign, where he triumphed over Finland's Eero Vasa before being bested by Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Denis Shapovalov as Great Britain failed to make it through to the knockout rounds.

However, after hitting 38 winners and just 20 unforced errors against Daniel, Evans ought to have a newfound spring in his step when he squares up to Tiafoe, as the duo fight for the right to meet defending champion Adrian Mannarino or Aleksandar Vukic in round two.


Tournament so far

Frances Tiafoe:

First round: Bye

Dan Evans:

First round: vs. Taro Daniel 6-2 7-6[4]


Head To Head

Vienna Open (2023) - First round: Tiafoe wins 1-4 ret.
Washington Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Evans wins 6-4 7-5
United Cup (2023) - Host City Finals: Tiafoe wins 3-6 7-5 6-3
Stockholm Open (2021) - Quarter-finals: Tiafoe wins 1-6 6-1 6-1
Miami Open (2021) - Second round: Tiafoe wins 6-7[5] 6-3 6-3
European Open (2020) - Second Round: Evans wins 7-6[3] 6-2
Swiss Indoors (2019) - First Round: Tiafoe wins 6-4 6-2
Delray Beach Open (2019) - First round: Evans wins 3-6 7-6[1] 7-5

Meetings between Tiafoe and Evans have been commonplace on the ATP Tour, and the pair have already clashed eight times at the top level, with the American boasting five wins compared to three for his more experienced opponent.

Four of those victories for Tiafoe have come in their last five matches, although his most recent one was by retirement at last year's Vienna Open, where Evans was 4-1 up in the first set before suffering a calf injury.

Earlier that year, Evans had defeated Tiafoe in straight sets in the Washington Open quarter-finals, where he would eventually go on to win his first and only ATP 500 crown to date.


SM words green background

We say: Tiafoe to win in two sets

Excluding his retirement win in Vienna, each of Tiafoe's last three victories against Evans have seen the American come from behind to win in three - he has not beaten the Brit in straight sets since 2019.

However, the well-rested American has our vote to get the job done with minimal fuss this time around, even if Evans did lay down a marker with an impressive first-round win.

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