Portimonense are underdogs in Friday's Taca de Portugal third-round encounter with Primeira Liga defending champions and last season's cup runners-up Sporting Lisbon at Estadio Municipal de Portimao.
The second-tier side have had a wretched start to their Segunda Liga campaign but did notch success against Vianense in the previous round and hope to upset Ruben Amorim's side this weekend.
Match preview
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Despite suffering relegation after seven years in the top flight, Portimonense were favoured to start strongly in their bid to return to the Primeira Liga, but results have disappointed.
Ricardo Pessoa's men have notched just one victory in seven league fixtures, a 5-1 thrashing of Maritimo before the September international break — the club's only win since Pessoa replaced Sergio Vieira in late August — but that has been followed by three consecutive league losses against Torreense (3-2), Penafiel (2-0) and Leixoes (3-0).
Even though they got respite with their second-round 3-1 cup win over Vianense in the penultimate week of last month, league losses to Penafiel and Leixoes have dampened the mood before welcoming Sporting.
Particularly problematic for Marafados are their lack of goals in the recent defeats before the hiatus, which does not bode well before welcoming an opponent that have not conceded a domestic goal since mid-August.
Pessoa's men hope to catch Sporting on a rare bad day in the one-off fixture, with the round-three match to be settled on Friday.
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Amorim's side may not be in the mood to grant favours to their struggling opponents, having last conceded a goal in domestic competition when Nigel Thomas levelled proceedings for promoted Nacional before they netted five more times to secure a 6-1 road victory.
Since that August 17 triumph, the defending Liga champions and last season's cup runners-up have defeated Porto (2-0), Arouca (3-0), AVS (3-0), Estoril (3-0) and Casa Pia (2-0) without letting in a goal and aim to extend that run to seven consecutive domestic shutouts.
Only PSV's Jerdy Schouten has prevented Leoes from clean sheets in eight matches on the spin in all competitions, even if the Green and Whites responded to that concession by keeping Casa Pia out before the international break.
They aim to pick up where they left off against their second-tier opponents, searching for another triumph over a side they have impressively dominated by winning 12 on the spin in all competitions since Portimonense's 4-2 victory in the 2018-19 season.
Such dominance further underscores Sporting's superiority, and Amorim's side will back themselves to inflict another loss on their Segunda Liga hosts.
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Team News
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It remains to be seen if Kosuke Nakamura returns from the injury that forced off the goalkeeper against Penafiel in late September, with Vinicius Silvestre replacing the injured shot-stopper in the following defeat against Leixoes.
Paulo Vitor (four league goals) and Chico Banza (three) were also on target in Portimonense's second-round win over Vianense, and both should start against Sporting.
Amorim is anticipated to have Marcus Edwards (muscle), Ousmane Diomande (ankle) and Matheus Reis all missing through injury.
Having returned from injury and made the bench against Casa Pia, Vladan Kovacevic could return between the sticks for the favourites.
With Sporting's next competitive game against Sturm Graz four days after Friday's Taca de Portugal match, the favourites should name a strong side in Portimao.
Portimonense possible starting lineup:
Silvestre; Alemao, Relvas, Kobayashi; Campos, Ruan, Diaby, Geovane, Vitor; Benedict, Banza
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Kovacevic; Quaresma, Debast, Inacio; Fresneda, Braganca, Hjulmand, Esgaio; Trincao, Gyokeres, Harder
We say: Portimonense 0-2 Sporting Lisbon
Sporting are expected to be far too strong for an out-of-sorts Portimonense, who enter Friday's match on a two-match losing run without scoring.
Amorim's side are backed to inflict another defeat on a club that have won just two in eight competitive games this term to secure their place in the fourth round.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 63.69%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 16.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.91%) and 0-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.23%), while for a Portimonense win it was 2-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
