Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Porteno win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Bolivar had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Porteno win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Bolivar win was 0-1 (9.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Porteno would win this match.