We said: Portland Timbers 0-1 Houston Dynamo
For most of this campaign, the Timbers seem to have overcompensated to fix what was a leaky defensive unit last season, and in doing so, they have struggled to put forth a very dynamic attack.
Houston have been plugging away and holding strong at the back despite several injuries, and we believe their tireless teamwork will pay off on Sunday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 45.5%. A win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.