Atletico Goianiense have a chance to punch their ticket into the semi-finals of the Copa Sudamericana for the first time in club history when they host Nacional at Estadio Serra Dourada in the second leg of that quarter-final clash.
The Brazilians won the first encounter 1-0 in Montevideo despite having only 30% of the possession and firing a mere two shots on target.
Match preview
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Atletico Goianiense's domestic campaign has gone off the rails over the past couple of months, losing five of their last six encounters, putting Jorginho's side in the relegation zone in the Brasileiro Serie A.
Cup competitions, though, have been a different story for Goianiense in 2022, as they have thrived at the Sudamericana and the Copa do Brasil.
They had an impressive group stage at this competition, winning four of their first five games and capturing their group with 13 points, scoring 11 goals, while conceding only five.
Dragao have only conceded in one home fixture so far in this competition, scoring twice in the opening eight minutes in the second leg of their round of 16 clash with Olimpia, erasing a two-goal deficit before holding their nerve in the shootout to advance into the last eight.
They are unbeaten in their previous six matches in all competitions when scoring the opening goal, posting a clean sheet in four of those games, all of which ended in victory.
Their performance at this tournament is a sharp contrast to what they have shown us in the league, conceding the second-most goals in Serie A and currently positioned to slide down into Serie B.
Goianiense are by no means the most creative or potent side in South America, though lately, they have made the most of the little possession they have had.
They blanked Corinthians 2-0 and shut out Nacional, even though Dragao had fewer than 40% of the ball in each of those encounters, plus they got past Bragantino this weekend 2-1.
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Uruguay's final hope for South American glory in 2022 rests in the hands of Nacional, who have not made it to the last four of this competition since 2002.
Even though that was 20 years ago, there is some relevant precedent for them to remember, as that edition of Bolso came into their deciding leg versus Alianza Lima trailing 1-0 and managed to come away with a 3-1 victory that year to advance into the semi-finals.
Unlike their Brazilian opponents, Nacional have been in the thick of the domestic title race in Uruguay throughout the campaign.
Pablo Repetto guided his team to second place in the Torneo Apertura before they topped Serie B of the Torneo Intermedio, and currently Nacional are tied for third in the early stage of the Clausura table with three points.
In the group stage of the Copa Libertadores, the Uruguayans failed to start well away from home, conceding first in all three of those encounters, losing twice, which ultimately was enough to relegate them into this competition.
It was the same story on the road for them in the round of 16 of this tournament as they conceded the opening goal to Union but managed a late surge, thanks to two goals in the final 12 minutes, to win 2-1, advancing 4-1 on aggregate.
While two goals would be enough to send them into the next stage of this competition, they have only scored multiple goals on two occasions since May away from home, though they have found the back of the net in all but two road matches over that span.
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Team News
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Luiz Fernando had the only goal for Atletico in the opening leg of this tie, with Leo Pereira picking up an assist on that play, while Ronaldo only played 21 minutes in between the sticks before Renan stepped in and helped them preserve a clean sheet.
Jorge de Moura Xavier, better known as Jorginho and Shaylon, lead them with two goals each in this competition, while Wellington Rato has tallied four times for them domestically, with Marlon Freitas collecting three assists.
They could be missing several players because of injuries, as Ramon Menezes (Achilles tendon) is out for the season and Emerson Santos (Achilles tendon) will not be available until early September.
Klaus, Edson Fernando, Gabriel Baralhas and Shaylon are all expected to miss a few more weeks because of physical discomfort.
Luis Suarez scored his first of the season for Nacional since returning to the club where he started his career as he, Jose Luis Rodriguez and Ignacio Ramirez all tallied in their 3-0 win domestically against Rentistas this weekend.
Ramirez and Rodriguez both found the back of the net in their 2-1 come from behind victory against Union in early July, while Franco Fagundez and Leandro Lozano each scored in their 2-0 triumph against that same Argentine team in the opening leg.
Emmanuel Gigliotti leads them domestically with seven goals, and Sergio Rochet has picked up a shutout in two of his last three road fixtures.
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Renan; Dudu, Wanderson, A. Henrique, Hayner; Freitas, Lima; Kelvin, Jorginho, Pereira; Churin
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Rochet; Lozano, Coelho, Marichal, Candido; Rodriguez, Carballo; Otormin, Fagundez; Zabala, Suarez
We say: Atletico Goianiense 0-2 Nacional
A one-goal deficit is far from impossible, and nobody knows that better than Luis Suarez, who has a knack for scoring big goals in critical matches as he did at the Camp Nou when his opener helped spur his former club Barcelona onto a 6-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in one of the greatest comeback stories in Champions League history.
As sharp as Goianiense have been at the Sudamericana, they have been all over the place with their play domestically, and we anticipate their lack of experience in these types of matches could get the better of them in this one.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
