A one-goal deficit is far from impossible, and nobody knows that better than Luis Suarez, who has a knack for scoring big goals in critical matches as he did at the Camp Nou when his opener helped spur his former club Barcelona onto a 6-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain in one of the greatest comeback stories in Champions League history.
As sharp as Goianiense have been at the Sudamericana, they have been all over the place with their play domestically, and we anticipate their lack of experience in these types of matches could get the better of them in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Goianiense would win this match.
-0.06) 
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