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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 43.64%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 31.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-0 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Middlesbrough |
31.45% ( 1.96) | 24.91% ( -0.02) | 43.64% ( -1.93) |
Both teams to score 56.71% ( 1.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.56% ( 1) | 46.44% ( -1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.28% ( 0.94) | 68.72% ( -0.94) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.07% ( 1.83) | 27.93% ( -1.83) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.45% ( 2.27) | 63.55% ( -2.27) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.69% ( -0.45) | 21.31% ( 0.45) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.74% ( -0.7) | 54.26% ( 0.7) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Middlesbrough |
1-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 7.49% ( 0.34) 2-0 @ 4.84% ( 0.28) 3-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.3) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.22) 4-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.14) Other @ 2.82% Total : 31.45% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.19) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.09) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.91% | 0-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.53) 1-2 @ 9.07% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 7.11% ( -0.51) 1-3 @ 4.68% ( -0.15) 0-3 @ 3.67% ( -0.32) 2-3 @ 2.98% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.81% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.14) 2-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.56% Total : 43.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 58 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 51 | 19 | 32 | 56 |
3 | Sunderland | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 54 |
4 | Burnley | 27 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 31 | 9 | 22 | 53 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 44 |
6 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 42 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 9 | 41 |
8 | Watford | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 41 |
9 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 38 |
10 | Bristol City | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 37 |
11 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 37 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 36 |
13 | Coventry CityCoventry | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 35 |
14 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 35 |
15 | Swansea CitySwansea | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 34 |
16 | Preston North EndPreston | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 34 |
17 | Millwall | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 31 |
18 | Stoke CityStoke | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 28 |
19 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 28 |
20 | Derby CountyDerby | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 27 |
21 | Hull City | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 26 |
22 | Portsmouth | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 26 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 21 |
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