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Championship | Gameweek 10
Oct 19, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Den
Derby logo

Millwall
vs.
Derby

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: West Brom 0-0 Millwall
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 2-0 QPR
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in Championship

We say: Millwall 1-0 Derby County

With two matches in the space of five days at The Den on the horizon, Millwall should be raring to record back-to-back wins, starting with victory over newly-promoted Derby this weekend. The Rams have been very weak on their Championship travels so far and are set to struggle in the capital at a hostile venue on Saturday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Millwall win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Derby County has a probability of 32.23% and a draw has a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Millwall win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Derby County win is 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.98%).

Result
MillwallDrawDerby County
40.29% (0.089999999999996 0.09) 27.48% (-0.02 -0.02) 32.23% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)
Both teams to score 48.81% (0.049999999999997 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.26% (0.072000000000003 0.07)56.74% (-0.065999999999995 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.31% (0.058 0.06)77.69% (-0.051999999999992 -0.05)
Millwall Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.41% (0.085000000000008 0.09)27.59% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.88% (0.107 0.11)63.12% (-0.1 -0.1)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.41% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)32.59% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.87% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)69.13% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Millwall 40.28%
    Derby County 32.23%
    Draw 27.48%
MillwallDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.57% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 8.36% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.46% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.59% (0.014 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.2% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.01% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.16% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.03% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 40.28%
1-1 @ 12.98%
0-0 @ 8.99% (-0.023 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.69% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 27.48%
0-1 @ 10.08% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 7.28% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.65% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.72% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 2.11% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.75% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 32.23%

Who will win Saturday's Championship clash between Millwall and Derby?

Millwall
Draw
Derby County
Millwall
70.6%
Draw
17.6%
Derby County
11.8%
17
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 34
Derby
1-2
Millwall
Cooper (88' og.)
Allsop (90')
Wallace (2'), Burey (30')
Saville (29')
Nov 6, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 17
Millwall
1-1
Derby
Malone (45+1')
Mitchell (58'), Cooper (90+1')
Ebosele (44')
Byrne (27')
Byrne (64')
Mar 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 36
Derby
0-1
Millwall

Shinnie (84')
Hutchinson (45')
Evans (58')
Dec 5, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 16
Millwall
0-1
Derby
Knight (69')
Shinnie (34'), Bielik (58'), Waghorn (85'), Kazim-Richards (86'), Byrne (87')
Jun 20, 2020 1pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
1.15am
Broncos
@
Saints
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland96121881019
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd9630123919
3Burnley95311441018
4West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom9522126617
5Leeds UnitedLeeds9441157816
6Watford95131414016
7Norwich CityNorwich94321610615
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn94321511415
9Middlesbrough9423107314
10Oxford UnitedOxford Utd93331311212
11Swansea CitySwansea933386212
12Derby CountyDerby94051212012
13Hull City93331213-112
14Plymouth ArgylePlymouth93241013-311
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds93241115-411
16Bristol City92521014-411
17Stoke CityStoke93151012-210
18Millwall9234121119
19Preston North EndPreston9234712-59
20Coventry CityCoventry92251013-38
21Luton TownLuton9225815-78
22Queens Park RangersQPR9144916-77
23Portsmouth9054920-115
24Cardiff CityCardiff9126418-145


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