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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.63%. A win for Bristol City had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Bristol City win was 0-1 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Bristol City |
39.63% ( 0.01) | 27.99% ( 0) | 32.38% ( -0.01) |
Both teams to score 47.37% ( -0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.43% ( -0.01) | 58.57% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.87% ( -0) | 79.13% ( 0.01) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.17% ( 0) | 28.84% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.3% | 64.7% ( 0) |
Bristol City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.57% ( -0.01) | 33.43% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.94% ( -0.01) | 70.06% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Bristol City |
1-0 @ 11.98% 2-1 @ 8.17% 2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.39% 3-0 @ 3.09% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.05% 4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 1.68% Total : 39.62% | 1-1 @ 13.13% 0-0 @ 9.64% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.98% | 0-1 @ 10.56% 1-2 @ 7.2% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.79% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( -0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 32.38% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sunderland | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
3 | Burnley | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 |
4 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 17 |
5 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
6 | Watford | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 16 |
7 | Norwich CityNorwich | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 15 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 14 |
10 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
12 | Derby CountyDerby | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 |
13 | Hull City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
14 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
16 | Bristol City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
18 | Millwall | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 9 |
19 | Preston North EndPreston | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 9 |
20 | Coventry CityCoventry | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
21 | Luton TownLuton | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
22 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
23 | Portsmouth | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 5 |
24 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 5 |
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