Corinthians return home with a chance to extend their unbeaten run at Corinthians Arena to seven games when they welcome Chapecoense to the Tatuape district of Sao Paulo on Monday.
Timao are tied with Internacional for sixth in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A with 41 points, while Chape are winless in eight consecutive league games as they are dead last in the table.
Match preview
© Reuters
Corinthians return home after going winless on their two-game road trip and in the process missing an opportunity to climb into a Copa Libertadores qualifying position next year.
Sylvinho has to be disappointed with how his team have started matches lately, as his players have not looked ready from the opening whistle, conceding in the opening 10 minutes of their last two fixtures.
Their second-half performances have enabled them to avoid many defeats, with seven of their last eight goals in the league being scored in half number two.
The 4-1-4-1 formation, which they often employ, has been incredibly effective in limiting their opponents' ability to counter and get into solid scoring positions as Time do Povo have only conceded 26 goals in Serie A this year, the third-fewest among Brazilian clubs in the top flight.
This is a side with a lot of speed and an ability to transition quickly from defence to attack, and it is clear that other teams in the Brasileiro Serie A recognize and respect that as Corinthians have been fouled 85 times over their last five league fixtures.
If they can win at least half of their remaining 10 Serie A encounters, it would tie their highest points total to end a season since 2019 when they came in eighth and earned a spot in the second stage of the Libertadores.
© Reuters
The joy of their first victory last month is in the rearview mirror by now as the struggles for Chapecoense continue, coming into this match on a two-game losing streak.
It is still mathematically possible that they can survive relegation, but with 10 games to go and 19 points separating them from a return trip into the top-flight next season, it will take a lot for Felipe Paiva Endres and his team to stay here beyond the 2021 campaign.
While statistics in football do not always tell us the whole story, the numbers for Chape explain a lot, as they have conceded 49 goals so far in 28 games, and have struggled to get themselves into good shooting positions of late, firing only one shot on target in each of their previous two matches.
This team have played well against Serie A's best clubs, drawing the league leaders Atletico Mineiro in early October, narrowly falling 2-1 at home to Fortaleza and edging Bragantino with an injury-time strike from Anselmo Ramon.
They come into this contest having dropped three straight on the road, being outscored 9-3 over that stretch, although their only victory of the campaign came away from home in Braganca Paulista, in a municipality of Sao Paulo.
In their first meeting this year versus Corinthians, it was a reasonably even game that came to down one moment where Chape were a step too slow in a pair of challenges inside of their own penalty area and Timao made them pay, winning 1-0.
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Giuliano and Fabio Santos each tallied their second goal of the year last Sunday in Corinthians' draw with Internacional, moving them into a tie with teammates Gustavo Silva, Renato Augusto and Gabriel Pereira.
Jo, who won the Brasileiro Golden Boot in 2017, finishing in a tie with Henrique Dourado with 18 goals that year, leads his team with six in the league so far in 2021, putting him two ahead of Roger Guedes, while Cassio is a big reason why this team have conceded a limited amount of goals, as the club skipper has kept eight clean sheets so far this season.
Midfielder Xavier will not be available following his expulsion late in their draw with Internacional, following a heated altercation with Patrick, who was also red-carded on the play.
Rodriguinho scored the last goal for Chape on their lone targeted effort versus Fortaleza, while Mike leads the team in goals this year with five, which is one more than Anselmo Ramon, who scored 10 in their Serie B triumph last year.
Vagner is out with a ruptured knee ligament, and we are unlikely to see Tiepo back this year after sustaining a knee injury in the middle of June.
A few changes were made to the starting 11 versus Bahia as Busanello and Laercio were inserted at the back instead of Ignacio and Jordan, while Anderson Leite took the place of Lima in midfield.
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Santos, Gustavo, Gil, Fagner; Giuliano, Silva, Augusto; Vitinho, Jo, Pereira
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Derlan, Joilson, Ezequiel, Ribeiro, Laercio; Denner, Ronei, Leite; Rodriguinho, Mike
We say: Corinthians 2-0 Chapecoense
No surprise here, Corinthians are in the top half of the table because of how well they have fared at home, while Chape lack quality and structure, and they make it far too easy for the opposition to get into those dangerous scoring areas of the field.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 53.01%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 21.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.47%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Corinthians in this match.
