Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 71.55%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 11.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 1-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.83%), while for a Heracles win it was 1-2 (3.42%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.