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Juventus logo
Serie A | Gameweek 38
Aug 1, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Allianz Stadium
Roma logo

Juventus
1 - 3
Roma

Higuain (5')
Rugani (21')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Kalinic (23'), Perotti (44' pen., 52')
Smalling (40'), Perotti (45+1'), Cristante (54'), Fazio (90+4')

Preview: Juventus vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Juventus and Roma, including team news and predicted lineups.

Recently-crowned Serie A champions Juventus play host to Roma in the final round of fixtures in the Italian top flight this Saturday.

Roma are already assured of their fifth-placed finish and, like their opponents, have little to play for this weekend.


Match preview

Juventus attacker Cristiano Ronaldo celebrates scoring against Sampdoria on July 26, 2020© Reuters

While Juventus have managed to secure an unprecedented ninth straight title in the Italian top flight, the Old Lady have reclaimed their crown in less-than-convincing fashion this time around.

Maurizio Sarri's men followed up their title-clinching victory over Sampdoria with a dismal 2-0 defeat to 13th-placed Cagliari on Wednesday, as first-half strikes from Luca Gagliano and Giovanni Simeone put Juve to the sword early on.

The result means that the Serie A champions have now only tasted victory twice in their last seven outings, but with the title already in the bag, there is little pressure on Sarri's men for the visit of Roma.

The Old Lady will soon turn their attention to their quest for Champions League glory when they welcome Lyon to Turin for the second leg of their last-16 tie, although Juventus will need to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg.

For now, though, the Old Lady must focus on the task at hand against Roma as they look to record their 40th Serie A home game in a row without defeat - a run stretching all the way back to May 2018.

Paulo Fonseca pictured as Roma boss in August 2019© Reuters

Meanwhile, Roma got the job done over a struggling Torino outfit in midweek as they secured a top-five finish for the 2019-20 campaign.

Paulo Fonseca's men came out on the correct end of the scoreline in a five-goal thriller with Il Toro, with goals from Edin Dzeko, Chris Smalling and Arsenal-linked Amadou Diawara propelling Roma to their third victory in succession.

I Giallorossi are finishing the season strongly and now boast a seven-game unbeaten run in the Italian top flight - a run of form which could have seen them push for a Champions League berth earlier in the campaign.

Nevertheless, Roma will have to make do with another campaign in the Europa League unless they can go all the way in this season's tournament, with a trip to Sevilla in the last 16 on the agenda for Fonseca's side in August.

Juventus and Roma have already met twice this season, and it was the Old Lady who took the spoils on both occasions with a 2-1 league victory preceding a 3-1 triumph in the Coppa Italia quarter finals.

Juventus Serie A form: DDWLWL

Roma Serie A form: WWDWWW


Team News

Adrien Rabiot in action for Juventus on July 15, 2020© Reuters

Adrien Rabiot is back from suspension for Juventus and could slot straight back into Sarri's midfield, meaning that Simone Muratore may drop down to the bench.

Veteran goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon will be looking to keep his spot in between the sticks, but Matthijs de Ligt, Paulo Dybala, and Douglas Costa are not expected to feature.

Sarri bemoaned a hectic fixture schedule following his side's defeat to Cagliari, and the Juventus manager has hinted that he may give chances to several up-and-coming players for the visit of Roma.

As for Fonseca's side, Lorenzo Pellegrini has undergone successful surgery on a fractured nose, but Saturday's game is expected to be too soon for the midfielder.

Wing-backs Bruno Peres and Leonardo Spinazzola also had to be forced off with knocks in the victory over Torino, but both players' injuries are thought to be minor.

Fonseca could also ring the changes with the Europa League taking priority, which could see Nicolo Zaniolo, Roger Ibanez and Jordan Veretout return to the first XI.

Juventus possible starting lineup:
Buffon; Danilo, Demiral, Rugani, Matuidi; Peeters, Rabiot, Ramsey; Bernardeschi, Olivieri, Ronaldo

Roma possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Smalling, Ibanez, Kolarov; Zappacosta, Veretout, Diawara, Spinazzola; Zaniolo, Mkhitaryan; Kalinic


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Juventus 1-1 Roma

Juventus are expected to field a heavily weakened-team with the Champions League in mind, and Roma also have European aspirations of their own heading into August. As a result, we are expecting the two sides to exercise caution and play out a draw in the final weekend of the season.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 49.65%. A win for Roma had a probability of 27.79% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.48%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.


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Chris Smalling in action for Roma in November 2019
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli118121881025
2Inter Milan1173125131224
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1171329141522
4Fiorentina116412291322
5Lazio1171324141022
6Juventus115601971221
7AC Milan105231711617
8Udinese115151416-216
9Bologna103611211115
10Torino114251516-114
11Empoli1135389-114
12Roma113441214-213
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona114071624-812
14CagliariCagliari11236919-109
15Genoa11236821-139
16Como112361222-109
17Parma111641417-39
18Monza111551014-48
19VeneziaVenezia112271019-98
20Lecce11227420-168


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