Just days after their Champions League implosion, Juventus aim to pick up the pieces of their season against Serie A's rock-bottom side Salernitana on Sunday.
Heavily beaten by Villarreal on Wednesday, Juve are now hoping to haul themselves back into the Scudetto race, and face an away side in search of a miracle to survive having been unable to turn draws into wins.
Match preview
© Reuters
After gradually turning the Juventus side he inherited into a consistent force, Max Allegri was entitled to expect they would seal qualification for the Champions League quarter-finals in midweek, as they started the home leg of their last-16 tie level with Villarreal.
The relatively modest La Liga outfit, though, had other ideas: standing firm for the first 77 minutes at the Allianz Stadium before rattling in three unanswered goals in the closing stages.
With their dreams of a third continental title brutally ended for at least another year, the Bianconeri must now return their attention to sealing a Champions League return by way of a top-four domestic finish.
Juve are one of just two teams in the top five European leagues to go unbeaten since the start of December - the other being Sevilla - and during this period, they have picked up more points than any other Serie A side: 32 in 14 matches (2.3 per game), having collected just 24 points in their first 15 (1.6).
Indeed, some would classify the Turin club as dark horses for the Scudetto after they extended their unbeaten run to a 15th Serie A match last week - keeping themselves within striking distance of top spot with nine games left to play.
Following their 3-1 win at struggling Sampdoria, they sit fourth: just seven points adrift of leaders Milan, but with Napoli and defending champions Inter also in-between.
They remain in contention for the Coppa Italia, too, so there is plenty left to fight for despite the gloom which inevitably enveloped the club following Wednesday's events.
Also unbeaten in their last 32 league matches against teams in the bottom three - winning on 28 occasions - their last loss against such lowly opponents came as long ago as May 2016. Therefore, maximum points will be the minimum requirement for Allegri and company on Sunday afternoon.
© Reuters
Indicating the true David versus Goliath nature of their trip to Turin, Salernitana have only scored one goal in their five previous Serie A matches against the Old Lady, and have lost both away fixtures by an aggregate scoreline of 5-0.
Hopes of causing the ultimate upset and taking three precious points back down south this week remain slim, too, as no side has scored fewer goals than the Granata in Serie A this term - with their meagre total of 22 only two more than that of Juve striker Dusan Vlahovic's individual tally.
Salernitana have also conceded goals in each of their last 20 league games, and last shut out any opponent back in October - their only clean sheet of a difficult comeback campaign in the Italian top flight.
Following a commendable 2-2 draw with in-form Sassuolo last Saturday - when Milan Djuric salvaged a point with his 91st-minute strike - Davide Nicola's men are nine points short of safety, though still have at least one game in hand on the sides immediately above them in the standings.
That represented the Campanian club's fifth draw in six Serie A outings, with their only defeat since the start of February being a 5-0 thumping by Inter at San Siro.
To avoid a similar fate against Juventus, though, they will surely have to improve on their showing in November's reverse fixture, when they lost 2-0 at home; conceding 76% of possession and failing to register a single shot on target.
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- D
- D
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Following the debacle in Europe, Juventus will have to make at least one change to their starting XI on Sunday, as Manuel Locatelli is now isolating with COVID-19; joining long-term absentees Federico Chiesa, Weston McKennie, Kaio Jorge on the sidelines.
January signing Denis Zakaria and Leonardo Bonucci are also set to miss out for the home side, but veteran defender Giorgio Chiellini may be fit enough to replace Daniele Rugani at the back.
Having scored three goals in his last two league matches, Alvaro Morata will attempt to find the net in three consecutive appearances for the first time in Serie A - the last time he managed to do so anywhere was back in November 2019, for Atletico Madrid.
The Spain striker will be competing with both Moise Kean and Paulo Dybala to partner Dusan Vlahovic up front, after the Capocannoniere contender started on the bench last weekend.
Salernitana, meanwhile, only have Lys Mousset and defensive duo Stefan Strandberg and Frederic Veseli unavailable for the long trip north, as on-loan Brazilian forward Mikael has recovered from an ankle sprain sustained earlier this week.
Full-backs Pasquale Mazzocchi (ankle) and Luca Ranieri (muscular) are also back in contention after missing out against Sassuolo.
In support of Milan Djuric up front, Davide Nicola could bring in Diego Perotti from the start, but Torino loanee Simone Verdi and Franck Ribery are also pushing for selection.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Perin; Danilo, De Ligt, Rugani, Pellegrini; Cuadrado, Arthur, Rabiot, Bernardeschi; Morata, Vlahovic
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Mazzocchi, Dragusin, Fazio, Ranieri; L. Coulibaly, Ederson; Kastanos, Bonazzoli, Perotti; Djuric
We say: Juventus 2-0 Salernitana
Their midweek aberration aside, Juve have been an efficient machine in recent months, though rarely registering high on the spectacular scale.
Another regulation dispatch is in the cards against a porous Salernitana, who are fast running out of time to make the greatest of great escapes.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 82.67%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 5.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.04%) and 1-0 (11.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.76%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (2.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Juventus in this match.
