Seeking to somehow bounce back from a 2-0 first-leg defeat in the Champions League playoff round, Ludogorets Razgrad welcome Malmo to the Huvepharma Arena for the second leg on Tuesday evening.
Goals from Veljko Birmancevic and Jo Berget put the Swedish side in control during the first leg, and Jon Dahl Tomasson's side now travel to Bulgaria aiming to finish the job.
Match preview
© Reuters
Without former Calgiari attacker Kiril Despodov taking his rightful place in attack due to suspension, Ludogorets struggled for attacking inspiration during their first leg with Malmo, as goals from Birmancevic and Berget either side of the break propelled the Swedish giants to a convincing triumph.
The Bulgarian champions were previously on cloud nine before their dismal outing at the Eleda Stadion - stringing together a nine-game unbeaten run across all competitions since the new season commenced - but the jubilation of knocking Greek giants Olympiacos out in the third round has quickly subsided.
Not since the 2016-17 season have Ludogorets plied their trade in the Champions League proper as they bowed out in a group featuring Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain, and another unfancied stint in the Europa League - their sixth in a row - will follow should Valdas Dambrauskas fail to inspire his side to a dominant second-leg win.
However, Ludogorets have come out on top in all five of their home matches so far this season - scoring 15 goals and conceding just three in that time - and they warmed up for this pivotal encounter with a 5-0 thrashing of Lokomotiv Sofia in league action at the weekend.
Malmo also warmed up for the second leg in ideal fashion with a stellar domestic success, as Birmancevic was once again on the scoresheet alongside Anders Christiansen and Malik Abubakari in a 3-0 success over Degerfors.
Following criticism of their hectic schedule and a 3-2 league defeat to IFK Goteborg before the first leg with Ludogorets, momentum was not exactly on Malmo's side before the visit of the Bulgarian champions, but they channelled the energy from their pair of triumphs over Rangers as the Champions League dream inches ever closer.
Malmo previously made the group stage two years in a row between 2014 and 2016, during which time they put their skills to the test against Juventus, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, and Tomasson's side already have one foot firmly in the proper tournament and have won the second leg of the qualifying round on all three occasions that they have got this far.
The visitors' first away game of the new season ended in a 3-2 defeat to Norrkoping, but they have since embarked on a six-game unbeaten run away from home, scoring at least two goals in four of those matches on the road.
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Team News
Ludogorets will welcome Despodov back to the team with open arms after he served a suspension in the first leg, and the 24-year-old - who scored and provided two assists at the weekend - should displace Bernard Tekpetey in the XI.
Spanish striker Higinio Marin was fit enough to come off the bench against Lokomotiv but is not on the squad list for the second leg, while defenders Jordan Ikoko and Igor Plastun should return to the defence after being rested at the weekend.
Wanderson and Dominik Yankov are both pushing for starts after netting in Saturday's 5-0 success, and the latter has a good chance of making the first team here given the hosts' need for goals.
Malmo duo Bonke Innocent and Anel Ahmedhodzic are both back in the fold after serving suspensions in the first leg, and the latter's return is timely after Niklas Moisander picked up an injury last week.
Moisander was filling in at left-back while Jonas Knudsen nurses a knee injury, so Ahmedhodzic should take his place in a three-man defence as Martin Olsson is not registered for the Champions League.
Abubakari will be hopeful of earning a start up top after netting at the weekend, but competition for places in the final third is rife, and Tomasson has no reason to fix what is not broken here.
Ludogorets Razgrad possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Ikoko, Plastun, Sa, Nedyalkov; Santana, Badji, Yankov; Cauly, Sotiriou, Despodov
Malmo possible starting lineup:
Dahlin; Nielsen, Brorsson, Ahmedhodzic; Berget, Lewicki, Christiansen, Rakip, Rieks; Colak, Birmancevic
We say: Ludogorets Razgrad 2-1 Malmo (Malmo win 3-2 on aggregate)
The return of key attacking figure Despodov will undoubtedly give the hosts a greater attacking edge, while their visitors are unlikely to have the wise old head Moisander marshalling the defence.
Ludogorets have only been marching to victories on home soil and that is unlikely to change here, but Malmo should keep the encounter close and scrape through to the promised land.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 54.33%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 20.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.9%) and 1-2 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 1-0 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
