The last two winners of the Champions League must now fight for their right to qualify for the last 16 of the 2024-25 edition, as Manchester City and Real Madrid collide in Tuesday's colossal first leg at the Etihad.
While the reigning champions of Europe were just one point from sneaking into the top eight, their hosts had to pull off a matchday eight fightback just to avoid the embarrassment of an early exit.
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Match preview
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A far cry from the all-conquering European team that went an outstanding 22 games unbeaten in the Champions League from September 2022 to April 2024, Pep Guardiola's champions-in-crisis were facing the very real prospect of being eliminated at the first league phase hurdle.
Just two of City's first seven Champions League matches this term saw the 2022-23 winners come up trumps, and Belgian giants Club Brugge threatened the shock of all shocks at the Etihad on the final matchday, but a 3-1 comeback triumph was enough to propel City into the coveted top-24 positions.
However, since surviving by the skin of their teeth in Europe, the Sky Blues have flattered to deceive yet again; on the back of their 5-1 Premier League pummelling at the hands of Arsenal, Guardiola's men only just eked out an unconvincing 2-1 FA Cup win at third-tier Leyton Orient on Saturday.
Nevertheless, the form book still makes for pleasant reading at face value for the Man City faithful, as the English champions' cup success marked their seventh win from their last 10 matches, and Guardiola's crop have now found the back of the net in 13 successive contests.
Furthermore, the Citizens remain unblemished at their Etihad headquarters in 2025 - beating Chelsea, Club Brugge, Salford City and West Ham United while scoring at least three goals on each occasion - and the hosts could now win five straight home matches in all tournaments for the first time since 2023.
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Also seeing their powers wane in Europe after notching their record-extending 15th crown at Wembley last year, Real Madrid's customary place in the knockout rounds came under some threat owing to three defeats from their first five continental contests of the campaign.
However, Carlo Ancelotti's seasoned competitors swatted aside Atalanta BC, Red Bull Salzburg and Brest in their final three league-phase matches to end up just one point shy of the top eight, but failure to earn a direct ticket to the last 16 still represents underperformance from the reigning champions.
Since their closing 3-0 win over Brest in their last UCL engagement, Real Madrid's domestic fortunes have been the dictionary definition of mixed; one win, one draw and one defeat across the Copa del Rey and La Liga, where they controversially accepted a 1-1 stalemate with city rivals Atletico Madrid on Saturday.
A questionable Julian Alvarez penalty preceded a Kylian Mbappe leveller in that Bernabeu battle, where Ancelotti's men were admittedly on top throughout the second half, but a combination of Jan Oblak and their own profligacy let them down.
Nevertheless, that point was enough to keep Real Madrid at the top of the La Liga table over Diego Simeone's men, and Los Blancos now prepare to face Man City for the fourth Champions League season in a row, with fond memories of ending the Sky Blues' reign on penalties last term.
Team News
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Enduring nothing short of a debut disaster, Man City's shiny new midfielder Nico Gonzalez was taken off injured in the first half of Saturday's FA Cup win, just after being bundled off the ball before Leyton Orient's freakish opening goal.
Guardiola could not say how severe the Spaniard's issue was immediately after the game, but he now joins Oscar Bobb (leg), Nathan Ake (muscle), Jeremy Doku (unspecified) and Ederson (unspecified) on the doubtful list, while Rodri (ACL) remains sidelined for the long-term.
Likely to be reinstated to the starting XI after scoring the winner on Saturday, Kevin De Bruyne is chasing a slice of Champions League history; the Belgium international's next goal or assist against Real Madrid will be his ninth in the competition, more than any other player.
Meanwhile, Los Blancos head to Manchester in the midst of a defensive crisis, as Lucas Vazquez has suffered a new hamstring injury and joins Antonio Rudiger (thigh), Dani Carvajal (knee), Eder Militao (knee) and David Alaba (muscle) remain sidelined.
A handful of Blancos players are also walking a suspension tightrope, as Jude Bellingham, Luka Modric, Eduardo Camavinga, Endrick and Aurelien Tchouameni will all miss the second leg if they are booked at the Etihad, as will Ancelotti himself.
However, the Italian will not take such concerns into consideration as he puts out his most powerful XI at the Etihad, where Tchouameni will once again be forced into an emergency centre-back role with the up-and-coming Raul Asencio.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Nunes, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; Silva, Kovacic; Foden, De Bruyne, Savinho; Haaland
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Valverde, Tchouameni, Asencio, Mendy; Camavinga, Modric; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior; Mbappe
We say: Manchester City 2-2 Real Madrid
The less said about Man City's display at Leyton Orient the better, but Guardiola inevitably made a surfeit of changes, and the champions of England have rediscovered a knack for goals - and indeed victories - on their Etihad turf recently.
The hosts' offensive exploits on their own patch spells trouble for Real Madrid and their decimated defence, but Ancelotti's men never know when they are beaten in Europe, and we expect the holders to return home the happier after an entertaining first-leg draw.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Ben Knapton
