Bordeaux's desperate scrap for Ligue 1 survival continues with a trip to the Stade de la Beaujoire to take on Nantes on Sunday afternoon.
Les Girondins were forced to settle for a 2-2 draw against fellow struggles Saint-Etienne in midweek, while Antoine Kombouare's side went down 3-2 to Marseille.
Match preview
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Former Paris Saint-Germain manager Antoine Kombouare was on the verge of handing his old employers the Ligue 1 title on Wednesday night, as his Nantes side found themselves 2-1 up against Marseille courtesy of Andrei Girotto's header and Marcus Coco's sublime volley.
However, a lack of penalty box discipline from Les Canaris allowed Marseille to keep the title race mathematically alive, with Dimitri Payet confidently scoring twice from the penalty spot before Amine Harit slotted home with 15 minutes remaining at the Orange Velodrome.
While Nantes can most likely forget about any late charge for Europe at this point, Kombouare will no doubt take the positives from their 10th-placed standing in the division given that this time last year they were fighting for their lives at the foot of the table, and a five-point gap separates them from 11th-placed Montpellier HSC.
Cementing their place in the top half of the division is now the ultimate goal for this bright Canaris outfit, but Kombouare has overseen a recent downturn in fortunes, with his side winning just one of their last six in the top flight and taking two points from the last nine on offer.
On a positive note, only six sides have performed better on home soil in Ligue 1 than Nantes this term, and Kombouare's side are coming up against ideal opposition as they aim to avoid going three games without a win at the Stade de la Beaujoire.
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With less than half an hour on the clock at the Matmut Atlantique, Marseille were in dreamland against relegation rivals Saint-Etienne, as Sekou Mara finished off a training ground corner routine before Jean Onana headed home to double his side's lead.
David Guion's side simply could not contain Denis Bouanga, though, and the Saint-Etienne attacker restored parity for his side before the half-time whistle blew and proceeded to find Arnaud Nordin to level proceedings in the second half, although Bordeaux shot-stopper Gaetan Poussin should have done much better.
While they at least managed to avoid another six-goal thrashing after their humiliating night at Lyon, throwing away two points to their bottom-half rivals leaves Bordeaux 19th in the table with five games left to play, and a five-point gap separates them from the safety of 17th spot at the time of writing.
On the face of it, a tally of one defeat from their last four is not catastrophic for a side involved in a relegation dogfight, but they are still winless away from home in 2022 and have conceded more goals than any other Ligue 1 side on the road this term - a staggering 47 in 16 matches.
Bordeaux did manage to take a point off Nantes in a 1-1 draw at the Matmut Atlantique earlier this season and boast an eye-catching record of just two defeats from their last 14 against Les Canaris, who will be in no mood to do their struggling visitors any favours this week.
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Team News
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Nantes attacker Coco went from hero to zero after seeing red for two bookable offences in the loss to Marseille, and he will serve a one-game ban here, but Jean-Charles Castelletto is back from a suspension of his own.
Castelletto's return is timely after Nicolas Pallois left the field with what Kombouare fears is a relapse of a previous knee injury, and the defender joins Charles Traore, Pedro Chirivella, Roli Pereira de Sa and Remy Descamps on the sidelines.
Quentin Merlin will be holding out for a recall on the left-hand side in Coco's absence, while top scorer Randal Kolo Muani was surprisingly an unused substitute against Marseille but should lead the line here.
As for the visitors, Guion has a key player of his own returning from a ban in the form of star striker Hwang Ui-jo, who will expect to slot straight back into the first XI, most likely in place of M'Baye Niang after Mara's well-taken goal in midweek.
Timothee Pembele has joined Alberth Elis on the long-term injury list after his devastating ACL rupture, and the trip to Nantes is also expected to come too soon for Marcelo and Issouf Sissokho.
Stian Gregersen will miss the home clash with Nice through suspension but is fine to take his place in the back three here, and Guion has a big call to make in goal as Benoit Costil remains on the bench following accusations of racism from Bordeaux's Ultramarines, which he has emphatically denied.
Nantes possible starting lineup:
Lafont; Appiah, Girotto, Castelletto; Corchia, Moutoussamy, Cyprien, Merlin; Blas, Kolo Muani, Simon
Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Costil; Guilavogui, Ahmedhodzic, Gregersen; Lacoux, Onana, Ignatenko, Mangas; Dilrosun; Hwang, Mara
We say: Nantes 3-1 Bordeaux
Bordeaux have plenty more to fight for than Nantes do at this stage of the season, and that ought to be reflected in a forward-thinking performance with the effervescent Hwang back in the fold.
However, keeping the back door shut away from home has been an issue for Les Girondins all season long, and a Nantes side who pushed Marseille all the way should get back on track in front of their own fans.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 70.39%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Bordeaux had a probability of 11.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%), while for a Bordeaux win it was 0-1 (3.85%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nantes would win this match.
