The bottom two teams in Group C will lock horns on Friday night, as Northern Ireland welcome Lithuania to Windsor Park for their penultimate World Cup 2022 qualification match.
Northern Ireland are currently fourth in the section, having picked up five points from their six matches thus far, while Lithuania are bottom with three points to show from their seven qualification games.
Match preview
© Reuters
Northern Ireland have not qualified for the finals of a World Cup since 1986 and that wait will continue for at least another four years, having struggled to make their mark in this qualification campaign.
Indeed, Ian Baraclough's side have won one, drawn two and lost three of their six matches in Group C to collect five points, which has left them in fourth position in the section.
The Green and Whites can still finish third, as they are only three points behind third-placed Bulgaria, who have played a game more, but Italy and Switzerland are comfortably clear in the top two positions, having proved to be too strong for the rest of the competition.
Northern Ireland went three games unbeaten in the section between March 31 and September 8, which included an impressive 4-1 victory away to Lithuania at the start of September.
However, Baraclough's team lost both of their qualifiers in October, suffering a 2-0 defeat in Switzerland before being beaten 2-1 away to Bulgaria three days later.
© Reuters
Lithuania, meanwhile, have won one and lost six of their seven qualification fixtures to sit bottom of the section on three points, while they have only scored four times and conceded 18 during a difficult campaign.
Rinktine actually managed to secure a surprise 3-1 home win over Bulgaria on October 9 but could not build on the result, as they suffered a 4-0 home defeat to Switzerland three days later.
Lithuania have never qualified for the finals of a World Cup, and it was always going to be difficult for them to break that pattern in this campaign due to the strength of the teams around them.
Valdas Ivanauskas's side can take encouragement for their performance against Bulgaria last month, but they have lost each of their last six matches away from home in all competitions.
Lithuania, as mentioned, were also well beaten by Northern Ireland in the reverse match back in September, with Dan Ballard, Conor Washington, Shayne Lavery and Paddy McNair on the scoresheet for Baraclough's team.
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Northern Ireland are expected to welcome Jamal Lewis back into their starting XI on Friday, with the Newcastle United defender available after serving a suspension against Bulgaria last time out.
There are not likely to be any real surprises in terms of team selection, with the hosts again set to line up in a 3-5-2 formation, with fit-again Jonny Evans featuring in the middle of the defence.
Josh Magennis and Washington have 14 international goals between them, and the pair are expected to lead the Northern Ireland line on Friday evening.
As for Lithuania, Egidijus Vaitkunas is available after a one-game suspension and will return to the away side's XI at right-back here, with Rolandas Baravykas set to drop out.
Arvydas Novikovas is the leading goalscorer in the squad with 12 and will feature in an attacking position, while Fedor Chernykh will also be included unless there are any late fitness issues.
Ernestas Setkus will wear the armband from the goalkeeping position once again, with the 36-year-old in line to win his 36th international cap at Windsor Park.
Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Cathcart, J Evans, Ballard; Bradley, McCann, Davis, Dallas, Lewis; Washington, Magennis
Lithuania possible starting lineup:
Setkus; Vaitkunas, Satkus, Girdvainis, D Barauskas; Dapkus, Magelaitis; Novikovas, Chernykh, Lasickas; Dubickas
We say: Northern Ireland 1-0 Lithuania
Northern Ireland put four past Lithuania in their last meeting, but we are expecting a much tighter contest here. It would not be a surprise to see the two sides play out a draw, but we believe that Northern Ireland's superior quality will shine through to allow them to collect all thee points at Windsor Park.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 49.22%. A win for Lithuania had a probability of 25.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest Lithuania win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Northern Ireland in this match.
