Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 32.36% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.