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Osauna logo
La Liga | Gameweek 33
Apr 20, 2022 at 8.30pm UK
El Sadar
Real Madrid logo

Osasuna
1 - 3
Real Madrid

Budimir (13')
Brasanac (44')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Alaba (12'), Asensio (45'), Vazquez (90+6')
Camavinga (5'), Militao (60'), Nacho (62')

Preview: Osasuna vs. Real Madrid - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's La Liga clash between Osasuna and Real Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Real Madrid will look to take another step closer to the La Liga title on Wednesday, when they take on Osasuna at the Estadio El Sadar.

Los Blancos staged an eye-catching turnaround to defeat Sevilla at the weekend, leaving them needing 10 points from their last six games to secure the trophy.


Match preview

Real Madrid's Karim Benzema celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on April 6, 2022© Reuters

After a sequence of commendable mid-table finishes, Osasuna have again enjoyed an impressive season in La Liga, putting themselves in the top half heading into the final run of games.

That has largely been down to a recent upturn in form for Jagoba Arrasate's men, who have now won four of their last six matches.

After victories over Villarreal and Levante were followed by heavy defeats to Barcelona and Real Betis respectively, Los Rojillos have posted back-to-back wins heading into Wednesday, firstly beating strugglers Alaves 1-0 at home thanks to Ante Budimir's 92nd-minute goal.

Arrasate's side then travelled to Valencia last time out, and they held out for a 2-1 win after Ezequiel Avila and Budimir had initially put them two goals ahead.

Having now leapfrogged Valencia and climbed to ninth spot with that latest victory, Los Rojillos will aim to extend their five-point lead over 11th place to further boost their claim for another top-half finish in the Spanish top flight.

Osasuna coach Jagoba Arrasate reacts on February 19, 2022© Reuters

They face a particularly difficult test, though, as Real Madrid make the trip aiming to move closer to bringing the league title back to the Santiago Bernabeu.

In what has been a tough league campaign for several of Spain's strongest sides, Los Blancos have taken advantage and led the division throughout the season under the management of Carlo Ancelotti, amassing 75 points from their 32 games thus far, 15 more than second-placed Barcelona who have two games in hand.

The capital outfit were comfortably beaten by Barca in the latest edition of El Clasico in March, suffering a 4-0 thrashing on home turf, but they went on to bounce back with consecutive league wins and a 3-1 away victory over Chelsea in the Champions League quarter-final first leg.

Ancelotti's side then welcomed the London outfit to Spain for the second leg last week, and, despite the Blues looking set to go through as they took a 3-0 lead on the night, Los Blancos forced their way back, as Rodrygo scored to take the tie to extra time and Karim Benzema hit the winner in the first 15-minute period.

Upon their return to domestic action on Sunday, Real Madrid trailed third-placed Sevilla 2-0 at the break, but Rodrygo and Nacho got on the scoresheet to level the game with 10 minutes to go before Benzema again hit the decisive goal, popping up in the 92nd minute.

That leaves Los Blancos with a healthy lead at the top of the division, and, before their Champions League semi-final tie with Manchester City, they will aim to chip away at the tally of 10 more points that they need to secure a 35th Spanish league title.

Osasuna La Liga form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Real Madrid La Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Real Madrid form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Real Madrid's Karim Benzema celebrates scoring their first goal on April 2, 2022© Reuters

Osasuna will likely remain without defenders Juan Cruz and Jesus Areso due to injuries.

Croatian forward Ante Budimir will spearhead the attack with confidence, having now scored in four consecutive games to take his tally to six league goals for the term.

Arrasate made a rare change to his established midfield unit last time out, reducing Darko Brasanac to a substitute appearance, and he will be vying to rejoin Lucas Torro in the engine room on Wednesday.

Real Madrid remain without winger Eden Hazard due to injury and midfielder Dani Ceballos due to an illness, while left-backs Marcelo and Ferland Mendy are also both set to continue spells on the sidelines.

Right-back Dani Carvajal moved across to fill the gap against Sevilla, while David Alaba and Nacho are also viable options to deputise on the left-hand side of the back four.

French star Karim Benzema will continue to lead the line, having taken his tally to 25 league goals for the season last time out, alongside 11 top-flight assists and 12 Champions League goals.

Midfield enforcer Casemiro will return from a suspension, leaving Eduardo Camavinga to have to fight for his place in the starting XI, while winger Rodrygo will hope to join Benzema and Vinicius Junior in the front three after netting in consecutive matches.

Osasuna possible starting lineup:
Herrera; Vidal, Hernandez, Garcia, Angel; Moncayola, Brasanac, Torro, Sanchez; Avila, Budimir

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Vazquez, Alaba, Militao, Carvajal; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius


SM words green background

We say: Osasuna 1-3 Real Madrid

Given the impressive form of the hosts, we certainly do not see this being an easy victory for Los Blancos, but we do ultimately expect them to get over the line.

Ancelotti's men will be full of confidence following their Champions League progression and Sunday's turnaround, and, with the chance to move within seven points of the title, we back them to take all three points in a hard-fought win.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 17.48%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.63%) and 1-2 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Real Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Real Madrid.


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Game History

How you voted: Osasuna vs Real Madrid

Osasuna
7.5%
Draw
10.1%
Real Madrid
82.4%
159
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Real Madrid midfielder Casemiro on February 3, 2022
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona12110140112933
2Real Madrid1173121111024
3Atletico MadridAtletico126511871123
4Villarreal116322019121
5Osasuna126331716121
6Athletic Bilbao125431812619
7Real BetisBetis125431210219
8Mallorca12534109118
9Rayo Vallecano114431210216
10Celta Vigo125161820-216
11Real Sociedad124351010015
12GironaGirona124351517-215
13Sevilla124351217-515
14AlavesAlaves124171419-513
15Leganes122551216-411
16Getafe12174810-210
17Espanyol123181122-1110
18Las PalmasLas Palmas122371321-89
19Real ValladolidValladolid12228924-158
20Valencia11146817-97


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