Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 55.11%. A win for Dynamo Moscow had a probability of 23.15% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Dynamo Moscow win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.