While Braga stunned the Estadio da Luz at the weekend, it is unlikely lightning will strike twice, despite their very fine away form of late. Benfica have been much better since Lage came in earlier this season, frequently performing well in big games, and with a place in the final on the line, they may just have the edge in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 63.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Braga had a probability of 16.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Braga win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Braga
63.29% ( 0)	20.29% ( 0.14)	16.42% ( -0.15)

Both teams to score 53.83% (

-0.85)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.44% (

-0.96)

41.56% (

0.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.04% (

-0.97)

63.96% (

0.97)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.5% (

-0.29)

12.5% (

0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.5% (

-0.6)

38.5% (

0.6)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.52% (

-0.77)

38.48% (

0.76)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.77% (

-0.74)

75.23% (

0.74)

Score Analysis

Benfica 63.28%

Braga 16.42%

Draw 20.29%

Benfica	Draw	Braga
2-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.22) 1-0 @ 10% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 3.75% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.58% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.11) 4-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.49% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.49% Total : 63.28%	1-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.29%	0-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 2.19% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.11% Total : 16.42%

How you voted: Benfica vs Braga

Benfica

78.0%

Draw

12.2%

Braga

9.8%

Head to Head

Jan 4, 2025 6pm

Gameweek 17

Benfica

1-2

Braga

Cabral (77')
di Maria (52'), Cabral (79'), Barreiro (88'), Beste (89')

Navarro (17'), Bambu (40')
Gorby (36'), Magalhaes (54'), Ferreira (90+3')

> Preview

Apr 27, 2024 6pm

Gameweek 31

Benfica

3-1

Braga

Leonardo (71', 90+5'), Neres (85')
Leonardo (90+5'), Carvalho (90+6')

Horta (28')
Moutinho (79'), Ndour (82'), Kokcu (82'), Carvalho (90+8')
Gomez (89')

> Preview

Jan 10, 2024 8.45pm

Round of 16

Benfica

3-2

Braga

Silva (42'), Cabral (44'), Aursnes (70')
Morato (40'), di Maria (60')

Zalazar (7', 48')
Gomez (58'), Oliveira (72')

> Preview

Dec 17, 2023 8.30pm

Gameweek 14

Braga

0-1

Benfica

Saatci (26'), Fonte (76'), Carvalho (90+4')

Tengstedt (3')
Morato (2'), Trubin (89'), Otamendi (90+5')

> Preview

May 6, 2023 8.30pm

Gameweek 31

Benfica

1-0

Braga

Silva (67')

> Preview

Form Guide

Benfica 1-2 Braga

Sporting Lisbon 1-0 Benfica

Santa Clara 0-2 Braga

Braga 3-3 Famalicao

Roma 3-0 Braga

Braga 2-2 Estoril

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Transfer Talk

Benfica
3 - 0
Braga