Thursday's quarter-final action at the Qatar Open throws up a rematch of last year's final between four-peat-chasing Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina.
The three-time champion survived a scare to outlast Linda Noskova in the last 16, and the 22-time WTA champion should expect another titanic tussle against the hard-hitting Rybakina when the highest-ranked players left in Doha battle for a place in the semis.
Match preview
© Imago
Observers were braced for an extended tussle when Swiatek met Noskova on Wednesday, and the match did not disappoint, as the Polish superstar needed to dig deep to secure a comeback 6-7(1), 6-4, 6-4 victory in two hours and 33 minutes.
It was the third consecutive time both women have played matches lasting over two hours and the fourth overall, with Noskova winning the first of such encounters in last year's shock Australian Open third-round victory over Swiatek.
Fresh off her latest success in Doha, which sees the second seed improve to 15-1 at the WTA 1000 event, the Polish superstar should expect another extended battle against Rybakina, against whom she triumphed to win last year's title for a third consecutive crown at the event.
The 2024 victory ended Swiatek's three-match losing run against the Kazakhstani star, and both women have since claimed a victory each in their rivalry, with the Polish player winning their most recent encounter in this season's United Cup.
Although her 12-match run of straight-set wins at the event was halted by Noskova in Wednesday's third round, the second seed advanced to seal a 14th consecutive win at the Qatar Open, and she bids for a 15th at the expense of a player aiming to clinch her first title in Doha and third WTA 1000 crown.
© Imago
Unlike Swiatek, who was finally tested against Noskova, Rybakina has barely broken a sweat in rounds two and three against Peyton Stearns and Rebecca Sramkova, with the latter triumph coming after Stefano Vukov's suspension by the WTA for a breach of the WTA Code of Conduct was upheld.
Despite her disappointment, that ruling did not prevent the 2022 Wimbledon champion and eight-time tour champion from dispatching Sramkova in one hour and 24 minutes.
Having won 77.8% of first-serve points in her round two win over Stearns, Rybakina improved to 90% on her first deliveries landed on Wednesday, and such execution stands her in good stead before facing Swiatek.
The fifth seed's latest victory was her eighth in Doha, improving to 8-3 at the event, and last year's finalist seeks a ninth success to make the final four in consecutive years at Swiatek's expense.
With last year's defeat the only loss Rybakina has suffered at the Qatar Open in seven matches, the 25-year-old hopes her experience of outwitting the Polish superstar with her big serves and hard-hitting will come to the fore in Thursday's quarter-final.
Tournament so far
Iga Swiatek:
First round: vs. Bye
Second round: vs. Maria Sakkari 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. Linda Noskova 6-7[1] 6-4 6-4
Elena Rybakina:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Peyton Stearns 6-2 6-4
Third round: vs. Rebecca Sramkova 7-6 6-2
Head To Head
United Cup (2025) - Semi-final: Swiatek 7-6(5) 6-4
Stuttgart (2024) - Semi-final: Rybakina 6-4 4-6 6-3
Doha (2024) - Final: Swiatek 7-6(8) 6-2
Rome (2023) - Quarter-final: Rybakina 2-6 7-6(3) 2-2 ret
Indian Wells (2023) - Semi-final: Rybakina 6-2 6-2
Australian Open (2023) - Fourth round: Rybakina 6-4 6-4
Ostrava (2021) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 7-6(5) 6-2
Among the players Swiatek has faced five times or more, her 42.9 win percentage against Rybakina is the lowest, with the Kazakhstani player leading the pair's head-to-head 4-3.
While the eight-time tour winner may have claimed two wins over Swiatek on clay — the Pole was forced into retirement two years back in Rome — the four-peat-chasing star holds a 3-2 lead on hard-court meetings, including in the most recent two in last year's Doha final and this season's United Cup semi-final.
Furthermore, the 2022 Wimbledon champion has fallen to three consecutive losses against top-10 opponents heading into Thursday's quarter-final, with her only victory in the recent five a dead-rubber encounter against Aryna Sabalenka at the 2024 WTA Finals in Riyadh.
We say: Rybakina to win in three sets
Swiatek, at times, seemed rattled against Noskova, with the young Czech player's serve, ball-striking and depth placement posing problems for the three-time Doha champion.
Rybakina packs a punch on serve and from the baseline, suggesting another marathon match could ensue between these women, whose last four encounters have crossed the two-hour mark.
Much will depend on the eight-time WTA champion executing to a high level, and we are backing the 2022 Wimbledon winner to upset Swiatek in three tight sets and record a fifth tour-level success over the Polish superstar.
