MX23RW : Monday, May 20 11:41:04| >> :600:2716933:2716933:
Porto
Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 17, 2024 at 8.15pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao
Vitoria de Guimaraes

Porto
3 - 1
Guimaraes

Taremi (26' pen.), Conceicao (45+5'), Pepe (75')
Taremi (55')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Freitas (1')
Silva (16'), Borevkovic (25'), Silva (35'), Silva (44'), Gaspar (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Taca de Portugal clash between Porto and Vitoria de Guimaraes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Porto 2-2 Famalicao
Saturday, April 13 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Guimaraes 1-1 Farense
Saturday, April 13 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Porto 1-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes

While Porto are the favourites heading into this contest, they have not been at their best lately and are missing a few important players due to their poor disciplinary record. Vitoria will be full of belief after beating Os Dragoes at this venue less than a fortnight ago, and we feel they will avoid defeat here, but the hosts will be the ones to progress on aggregate. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 64.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 15.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.18%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
PortoDrawVitoria de Guimaraes
64.2% (1.821 1.82) 20.51% (-0.6 -0.6) 15.3% (-1.211 -1.21)
Both teams to score 50.48% (-0.792 -0.79)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.32% (0.358 0.36)44.69% (-0.347 -0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.95% (0.34500000000001 0.35)67.05% (-0.334 -0.33)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.8% (0.66200000000001 0.66)13.2% (-0.652 -0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.07% (1.313 1.31)39.94% (-1.301 -1.3)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.16% (-1.36 -1.36)41.84% (1.373 1.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.71% (-1.208 -1.21)78.3% (1.219 1.22)
Score Analysis
    Porto 64.19%
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 15.3%
    Draw 20.51%
PortoDrawVitoria de Guimaraes
2-0 @ 11.32% (0.37 0.37)
1-0 @ 11.18% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.87% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-0 @ 7.64% (0.426 0.43)
3-1 @ 6.66% (0.131 0.13)
4-0 @ 3.87% (0.303 0.3)
4-1 @ 3.37% (0.145 0.15)
3-2 @ 2.9% (-0.051 -0.05)
5-0 @ 1.57% (0.157 0.16)
4-2 @ 1.47% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.37% (0.09 0.09)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 64.19%
1-1 @ 9.75% (-0.275 -0.28)
0-0 @ 5.52% (-0.083 -0.08)
2-2 @ 4.3% (-0.183 -0.18)
Other @ 0.94%
Total : 20.51%
0-1 @ 4.81% (-0.259 -0.26)
1-2 @ 4.25% (-0.288 -0.29)
0-2 @ 2.1% (-0.197 -0.2)
2-3 @ 1.25% (-0.103 -0.1)
1-3 @ 1.23% (-0.134 -0.13)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 15.3%

How you voted: Porto vs Guimaraes

Porto
63.3%
Draw
23.3%
Vitoria de Guimaraes
13.3%
60
Head to Head
Apr 7, 2024 8.30pm
Gameweek 28
Porto
1-2
Guimaraes
Galeno (44')
Wendell (37'), Mario (63')
Pepe (69')
Galeno (12' og.), Silva (33')
Freitas (45+1'), Freitas (53'), Ribeiro (62'), Silva (72'), Mendes (75'), Varela (89'), Oliveira (89')
Apr 3, 2024 8.15pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Guimaraes
0-1
Porto

Mendes (58'), Borevkovic (71'), Cesar (79')
Pepe (52')
Sanchez (45+8'), Otavio (56'), Wendell (80')
Nov 11, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 11
Guimaraes
1-2
Porto
Silva (17')
Silva (27'), Silva (72'), Silva (90+5')
Sanusi (39'), Conceicao (59')
Conceicao (26'), Galeno (85'), Sanchez (90')
May 27, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 34
Porto
3-0
Guimaraes
Taremi (8'), Otavio (32'), Evanilson (39')
Otavio (72'), Uribe (87')

Silva (40'), Freitas (44'), Tounkara (62'), Silva (71'), Sa (72'), Indio (89')
Handel (2')
Jan 21, 2023 8.30pm
Gameweek 17
Guimaraes
0-1
Porto
Mario (45+2')
rhs 2.0
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