Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia Under-21s win with a probability of 43.25%. A win for Bulgaria Under-21s had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia Under-21s win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Bulgaria Under-21s win was 0-1 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia Under-21s would win this match.