Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cook Islands win with a probability of 43.28%. A win for Tahiti had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cook Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.36%) and 3-2 (4.82%). The likeliest Tahiti win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.09%).