Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 49.1%. A win for Dynamo Dresden had a probability of 25.86% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.75%). The likeliest Dynamo Dresden win was 0-1 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.