Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for FC Ingolstadt 04 had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest FC Ingolstadt 04 win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
