Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 43.54%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 0-1 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
