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Danish Superliga | Gameweek 25
Jun 1, 2020 at 7pm UK
Ceres Park

Aarhus
1 - 0
Odense

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lund (60')

Preview: Aarhus vs. Odense - prediction, form guide, head to head

Sports Mole previews Monday's Danish top-flight clash between Aarhus and Odense, including predictions, form guide and head-to-head records.

Aarhus take on Odense at Ceres Park on Monday requiring just a point to make certain of a place in the Danish Superliga's championship round.

The fourth-place Whites marked their return to action following a two-month hiatus with a late draw against Randers, while Odense are down in ninth ahead of their first game back.


Match preview

Aarhus in action against Randers in the Danish Superliga's first game back on May 28, 2020© Reuters

Aarhus needed a last-gasp goal from Patrick Mortensen to rescue their 1-1 draw on Thursday in a match that made headlines across the world.

In the absence of any spectators owing to the coronavirus pandemic, the club constructed a giant electronic wall around the pitch which contained the faces of thousands of fans.

Supporters watched on as Mortensen struck in added time to edge their side a step closer to a top-six finish, with a draw on Monday enough to achieve their aim.

With league leaders Midtjylland 21 points better off, though, the best David Nielsen's side can hope for in the championship round is finishing third to secure a Europa League playoff spot.

Odense also have plenty still to play for as the regular season enters its final two matches. They are seven points adrift of the top six, however, and will therefore be part of the relegation round.

The Striped will still have a chance to qualify for the Europa League should they finish best of the rest in the bottom half, so Jakob Michelsen will be desperate to get some points on the board on Monday.

Whereas Aarhus have already got one 90-minute runout under their belt, Odense have not been in action since a 1-1 draw with SonderjyskE on March 8.

That was their third league draw in a row in a nine-match winless run that stretches back to early November.

From being as high as fourth after the 16th round of fixtures, Odense have slipped all the way down to ninth and desperately need to stop the rot.

Achieving that on Monday will be a big ask, however, as Aarhus are unbeaten in five at home - taking nine points from 15 - while Odense have not won any of their last six on their travels.

Aarhus' Superliga form: DWWDLD

Odense's Superliga form: DLLDDD


Head To Head

Aarhus have lost only one of the last eight meetings between the sides, winning both of the last two.

The Whites were 1-0 winners when the sides last faced off, courtesy of a late Jakob Ankersen goal in their Danish Cup round-of-16 tie seven months ago.


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Aarhus 2-0 Odense

Odense are at a disadvantage as this is their first game back following a near three-month break. Aarhus were fortunate to avoid defeat last time out, but they are unbeaten in five at home and are the clear favourites here.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aarhus win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Odense had a probability of 31.03% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aarhus win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Odense win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aarhus in this match.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1AarhusAarhus1676329161327
2Copenhagen1576227171027
3FC MidtjyllandMidtjylland158342722527
4Nordsjaelland167542926326
5SilkeborgSilkeborg156722821725
6RandersRanders156632718924
7Brondby156542820823
8Viborg FFViborg155552825320
9Aalborg BKAaB154471830-1216
10SonderjyskESonderjyskE153391735-1812
11Lyngby BoldklubLyngby Boldklub151771120-910
12Vejle1513111635-196


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