Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Stade 28 Septembre

Guinea
2 - 0
Ethiopia

Kamano (39'), Bayo (73')
Guilavogui (26'), Bayo (35')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Yohannes (18'), Hamid (25'), Panomo (45')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Group Stage clash between Guinea and Ethiopia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ivory Coast 3-1 Guinea
Tuesday, September 27 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Ethiopia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Ethiopia 1-0 Rwanda
Sunday, March 19 at 12pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 14.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.

Result
Guinea	Draw	Ethiopia
61.76% ( 1.3)	23.98% ( -0.42)	14.27% ( -0.88)

Both teams to score 38.51% (

-0.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.4% (

0.04)

59.6% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.07% (

0.03)

79.93% (

-0.03)

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.86% (

0.51)

19.14% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.21% (

0.83)

50.79% (

-0.83)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.63% (

-1.28)

52.37% (

1.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.76% (

-0.84)

86.24% (

0.84)

Score Analysis

Guinea 61.75%

Ethiopia 14.27%

Draw 23.97%

Guinea	Draw	Ethiopia
1-0 @ 16.57% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.42) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.34) 3-1 @ 4.88% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.19) 4-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.44% Total : 61.75%	1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 10.02% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.37% Total : 23.97%	0-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 3.47% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.17) Other @ 2.22% Total : 14.27%