There is little to separate the teams heading into Saturday's clash, which could easily swing in either direction. That said, we are tipping Ethiopia to have enough about themselves to get the job done in what should be a tight affair. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 51.18%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for Mozambique had a probability of 19.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.43%), while for a Mozambique win it was 0-1 (9.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.

Result
Ethiopia	Draw	Mozambique
51.18% ( -0.58)	28.84% ( -0.21)	19.97% ( 0.78)

Both teams to score 36.72% (

1.31)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.54% (

1.14)

67.46% (

-1.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.42% (

0.75)

85.57% (

-0.75)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.95% (

0.27)

27.05% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.58% (

0.36)

62.41% (

-0.36)

Mozambique Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.34% (

1.61)

49.66% (

-1.62)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.58% (

1.1)

84.42% (

-1.1)

Score Analysis

Ethiopia 51.18%

Mozambique 19.97%

Draw 28.84%

Ethiopia	Draw	Mozambique
1-0 @ 17.56% ( -0.61) 2-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.31) 2-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.58% Total : 51.18%	0-0 @ 13.43% ( -0.57) 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.3% Total : 28.84%	0-1 @ 9.4% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 4.3% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 1% ( 0.1) Other @ 1.98% Total : 19.97%