Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 9, 2022 at 7pm UK

Ethiopia
0 - 1
Cape Verde

Tamene (39')
Baye (12')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Tavares (45+1')
Rodrigues (25')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Ethiopia and Cape Verde, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Ethiopia 1-1 Cape Verde

Both teams will be fully up for this given the occasion which should make for an enthralling affair. We are predicting a share of the spoils with the sides settling for a point apiece in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 38.49%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cape Verde in this match.

Result
Ethiopia	Draw	Cape Verde
33.82%	27.69%	38.49%

Both teams to score 48.56%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.77%

57.23%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.92%

78.08%

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.24%

31.76%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.81%

68.19%

Cape Verde Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.15%

28.85%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.29%

64.71%

Score Analysis

Ethiopia 33.81%

Cape Verde 38.48%

Draw 27.69%

Ethiopia	Draw	Cape Verde
1-0 @ 10.5% 2-1 @ 7.49% 2-0 @ 6.03% 3-1 @ 2.86% 3-0 @ 2.3% 3-2 @ 1.78% Other @ 2.85% Total : 33.81%	1-1 @ 13.06% 0-0 @ 9.16% 2-2 @ 4.66% Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.69%	0-1 @ 11.38% 1-2 @ 8.12% 0-2 @ 7.08% 1-3 @ 3.37% 0-3 @ 2.93% 2-3 @ 1.93% 1-4 @ 1.05% 0-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.72% Total : 38.48%