America Mineiro will face Bahia on Saturday in the Campeonato Brasileiro, with the two teams separated by just four points.
The hosts currently sit in 12th place and occupy a Copa Sudamericana qualification spot, while Bahia sit in the relegation zone, but they have played one game less than America Mineiro.
Match preview
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America Mineiro have enjoyed a steady season and they have ambitions of qualifying for next season's Copa Sudamericana, but relegation is also still a risk with Coelho just four points above Bahia, who are in the fourth and final relegation place.
Positively for America Mineiro, they have only lost once in their last six games, although that defeat did occur in their last outing.
Vagner Mancini's side travelled to play Internacional during the week, but a goal from Ademir could do nothing to prevent America Mineiro from falling to defeat via a 3-1 scoreline.
An encouraging sign for Saturday's hosts is that they have only suffered one loss in their last six games on home turf, and in that period they have emerged victorious on four occasions.
Mancini will also be boosted by the fact that America Mineiro won the reverse fixture 4-3 back in June, and they also won the last time they hosted Bahia in November 2018.
Bahia find themselves in a precarious position in the relegation zone having accumulated 27 points from their 25 league games this season.
In their last six fixtures, they have only won once, but they have picked up four points from their previous two games, which may provide Bahia with some confidence.
Last weekend, Bahia travelled to Athletico Paranaense and managed to collect three points thanks to goals from Rai Nascimento and Gilberto, which guided the visitors to a 2-0 win.
In their most recent fixture, which took place in midweek, Guto Ferreira's side picked up a point by playing out a goalless draw with Palmeiras.
The last two games will give Bahia confidence because they have resulted in consecutive clean sheets, which will be a boost to a defensive line that has conceded 38 goals in the league this season - only Chapecoense have conceded more.
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Team News
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America Mineiro are without Eduardo, who is unavailable due to a broken foot.
Mauro Zarate and Orlando Berrio are both out injured with thigh and knee injuries respectively.
Mancini could bring Ale back into the side after the midfielder missed the game in midweek against Internacional due to suspension.
Bahia saw Hugo Rodallega return from injury against Palmeiras to make an appearance as a substitute in the second half, and the forward is likely to be on the bench again for Saturday.
German Conti also returned from injury during the week, managing to play the full 90 minutes, and he will continue at centre-back on Saturday.
Bahia are still without Rossi, who is out with a thigh problem.
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Patric, Silva, Bauermann, Marlon; Kal, Juninho, Ale; Ademir, Azevedo, Fabricio
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Fernandes; Paraiba, Otavio, Conti, Matheus; Patrick, Danielzinho, Mugni; Nascimento, Capixaba, Gilberto
We say: America Mineiro 1-1 Bahia
This is likely to be a close contest and, though Bahia will want to win to move out of the relegation zone, they may be content with a point away from home, and as a result we think this one will end all square.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 45.9%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
