After important late goals saved them at home and in Europe during the past week, Atalanta BC welcome Sassuolo to the Gewiss Stadium on Tuesday evening.
The Bergamaschi have been indebted to strikes in the final 15 minutes in each of their last two outings, and now they face opponents who are struggling to maintain momentum under new leadership.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having approached their first Champions League encounter of the season straight after a dispiriting home defeat to Fiorentina last week, Atalanta were more than relieved when they salvaged a 2-2 draw on the opening night.
Starting their third consecutive campaign in the competition with a point against Villarreal - thanks to a late Robin Gosens strike - sent them to Salerno in improved spirits before they resumed domestic action on Saturday.
However, it again took a goal deep into the second period for La Dea to see off the claims of their promoted opponents, who have been off the pace so far in the Italian elite - with Colombian striker Duvan Zapata this time the man to find the decisive finish.
The last time the Bergamo side went three Serie A matches without a win was in November of last year, so coach Gian Piero Gasperini was admittedly relieved when the final whistle confirmed maximum points at the Arechi.
His team now host opposition who they have devoured without hesitation in the recent past, with only a 1-1 draw in May ending a four-game streak in which Atalanta outscored Sassuolo by 16 goals to four - winning comfortably on each occasion.
Therefore - particularly given the Neroverdi's sticky start to the 2021-22 season - Gasperini and company will expect to come out on top once again.
© Reuters
After another eighth-placed finish last term, under now-departed boss Roberto De Zerbi, the current campaign got off to a strong start for Sassuolo, as they defeated Hellas Verona on the opening day.
The Emilians, though, have since taken just a solitary point from their following three games, and are causing some concern for new head coach Alessio Dionisi.
Their latest setback came on Saturday, as an 83rd-minute Marko Pjaca curler beat veteran stopper Andrea Consigli in the Neroverdi goal, and proved just reward for a Torino team that created far more chances at the Mapei Stadium.
A second straight late defeat may demoralise Dionisi's troops ahead of the trip to Lombardy, but they had previously won a club-record five away games in a row before falling to Roma's stoppage-time winner last time they were on the road.
Since Francesco Caputo's exit broke up his successful partnership with Sassuolo's star man Domenico Berardi, the Neroverdi have managed just one goal in three Serie A outings, so they will be looking to his Italy colleagues Giacomo Raspadori and Gianluca Scamacca to help ease the burden and fire them to an unexpected victory on Tuesday.
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
On Tuesday, Atalanta will still have Hans Hateboer and last season's top scorer Luis Muriel out of action through injury, but Gian Piero Gasperini's expanded squad can compensate - with Joakim Maehle and Duvan Zapata proving able deputies.
'Gasp' will choose between Josip Ilicic, Matteo Pessina, Aleksey Miranchuk and Ruslan Malinovskyi to start in support of Zapata up front, while he may rest Merih Demiral at the back, after the on-loan defender suffered a nasty head injury at the weekend.
Considering a packed recent schedule, which culminates in a Lombardy derby versus Inter next Saturday, the experienced coach may well make further changes in midfield. Marten de Roon returns from a domestic suspension and fellow Dutchman Teun Koopmeiners will hope for a first league start, after joining the action at half-time in Salerno.
Sassuolo's squad is nearly fully fit for the trip to Bergamo, but Pedro Obiang was diagnosed with a heart condition last month so remains unavailable to Alessio Dionisi, who once more opted for Maxime Lopez and Davide Frattesi as his central pair against Torino and is likely to do so again.
Up front, Dionisi must decide between Giacomo Raspadori, Gregoire Defrel and Gianluca Scamacca to lead the line for the Neroverdi.
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Toloi, Palomino, Djimsiti; Maehle, De Roon, Koopmeiners, Gosens; Ilicic, Pessina; Zapata
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Toljan, Chiriches, Ferrari, Rogerio; Frattesi, Lopez; Berardi, Djuricic, Boga; Scamacca
We say: Atalanta BC 2-1 Sassuolo
The odds are stacked against Sassuolo on Tuesday, as Atalanta are getting closer to their irresistible peak and can generally score from all departments - no matter what their starting XI.
Because the visitors have suffered an unusual lack of cutting edge of late, they will be outscored by their hosts, who can then prepare for a major clash at San Siro.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 62.04%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Sassuolo had a probability of 17.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.7%) and 1-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.47%), while for a Sassuolo win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Atalanta BC in this match.
