Atletico Madrid will be bidding to return to winning ways in La Liga when they welcome Getafe to Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday night.
Diego Simeone's side will enter the contest off the back of a 4-2 defeat to Barcelona last weekend, while Getafe recorded a 3-0 victory over Levante to move further clear of the relegation zone.
Match preview
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Atletico dropped out of the top four last weekend courtesy of a 4-2 defeat at Barcelona, and it would be fair to say that Simeone's side are facing a battle to secure a Champions League spot for next season, with Real Betis, Barcelona, Villarreal, Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao also in the argument.
Sevilla are Real Madrid's closest challengers in the league this season, with Atletico sitting 17 points behind leaders Los Blancos, and the fact that the Red and Whites have dropped points in 12 of their 22 league matches this season is an indication of their struggles.
Simeone's team have collected 21 points from their 10 home league matches this term, which is a relatively strong record, but they have struggled on their travels, picking up just 15 points from 12 games, and they have been some way short of title challengers during the 2021-22 campaign.
Atletico have three more league games against Getafe, Levante and Osasuna before welcoming Manchester United for the first leg of their last-16 Champions League contest on February 23.
The capital giants recorded a 2-1 victory when they travelled to Getafe earlier this season, while they have not actually lost to the Deep Blue Ones in Spain's top flight since May 2010.
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Getafe, meanwhile, will enter the contest off the back of a 3-0 victory over Levante on February 4, with Enes Unal scoring a brace during a strong performance at Coliseum Alfonso Perez.
The Deep Blue Ones have only lost once in Spain's top flight since the start of November, while they have picked up seven points from their last three league games, which has helped them move clear of the bottom three.
The capital side are currently 15th in the table, seven points clear of the relegation zone, and they certainly appear to be heading in the right direction at a vital stage of the season.
Getafe's home form this term has been impressive, picking up 20 points from 12 matches, but they have found it difficult on their travels, picking up just five points from 11 matches, failing to win in the process.
Quique Sanchez Flores's side will finish the month with league games against Cadiz and Alaves before opening March with a trip to Espanyol, and a strong set of results could see them move into the top half of the division.
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Team News
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Atletico could again be without the services of Marcos Llorente, Geoffrey Kondogbia and Antoine Griezmann this weekend through injury, while Daniel Wass is a doubt due to a knee problem.
Head coach Simeone is expected to resist the temptation to make wholesale changes to the side that started against Barcelona, but Angel Correa is likely to come into the starting XI.
The champions could again line up in a 4-3-3 formation, with Mario Hermoso retaining his spot at left-back, but Hector Herrera, Reinildo, Renan Lodi and Felipe are all options for change.
As for Getafe, David Soria, Mathias Olivera, Jose Juan Macias and Sabit Abdulai will all miss the contest through injury.
Soria's absence will open the door for Diego Conde to feature between the sticks, but it could otherwise be the same side that started the three-goal victory over Levante last time out.
Unal, who netted a brace against Levante, should be joined by Sandro Ramirez in the final third of the field, while Carles Alena is likely to retain his spot in midfield.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Vrsaljko, Savic, Gimenez, Hermoso; De Paul, Koke, Lemar; Carrasco, Suarez, Correa
Getafe possible starting lineup:
Conde; Suarez, Dakonam, Mitrovic, Cuenca, Olivera; Alena, Maksimovic, Arambarri; Sandro, Unal
We say: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Getafe
Atletico desperately need to return to winning ways after the loss to Barcelona last time out, and we are expecting the home side to triumph. Getafe have not travelled well this season and could suffer their seventh away La Liga defeat of the campaign at Wanda Metropolitano.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.48%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Getafe had a probability of 8.43%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.85%) and 3-0 (10.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.59%), while for a Getafe win it was 0-1 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
