Athletico Paranaense will have to pull off a remarkable comeback if they are to lift the Copa do Brasil trophy when they host Atletico Mineiro in the second leg of the final on Wednesday.
The visitors will believe that they already have both hands on the trophy after thrashing Athletico Paranaense 4-0 in the first leg.
Match preview
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After winning the competition in 2019, Athletico Paranaense were looking to win their second Copa do Brasil trophy in the final against Atletico Mineiro.
However, a demoralising 4-0 defeat has effectively quashed their hopes of winning the competition, unless they can achieve an extraordinary result on Wednesday against the Campeonato Brasileiro champions.
Whatever the result in the second leg, they will end the season with silverware after winning the Copa Sudamericana, but after reaching the Copa do Brasil final for only the third time in their history, they would have been disappointed to see their hopes of a second cup win all but end in the first leg.
With a miracle required, Alberto Valentim's side will enter the second leg with effectively nothing to lose, and with a large win needed, they can take confidence from four victories in their last five home games.
The hosts require at the very least four goals without response if they are to take the final to extra-time, but having scored just four goals across their last nine competitive fixtures, it may prove to be an impossible task.
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Meanwhile, Athletico Mineiro look set to clinch a domestic double as they aim to add the Copa do Brasil trophy to their Campeonato Brasileiro title.
It has been a memorable season for the visitors, who won the league title at a canter, reached the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores, and the Copa do Brasil seems to be in their grasp following a comfortable 4-0 victory in the first leg.
Hulk dispatched his spot kick to open the scoring in the 24th minute before Keno doubled the home side's lead before the break, and an Eduardo Vargas brace followed in the second half to ensure that Atletico Mineiro take an overwhelming lead into the second leg on Wednesday.
After suffering just one defeat in their last 11 competitive matches, Atletico Mineiro will be confident that they can negotiate the second leg to seal the double
If they do lift the trophy on Wednesday, it would be only the second time in their history that Atletico Mineiro have won the competition and for Cuca, it would represent his first Copa do Brasil triumph as a manager.
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Team News
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Athletico Paranaense are still without Matheus Babi and Lucas Halter, who are both out injured.
Despite the dismal first leg result, Valentim is likely to keep changes to a minimum, which will give the same group of players an opportunity to respond and at the very least, they have the chance to restore some respectability to the scoreline.
Renato de Souza has scored four goals in the competition, and he will lead the line once again, while he will be supported in attack by David Terans and Nikao.
As for the Atletico Mineiro, they will be forced into one change after Diego Costa left the field in the 13th minute of the first leg due to injury.
Vargas replaced Costa in the first leg and he will come into the starting lineup for Wednesday after playing a key role in the victory.
After finishing as the Campeonato Brasileiro topscorer, Hulk is likely to also finish the Copa do Brasil as the best goalscorer following his seven strikes in the competition, and he will have the chance to add to that tally on Wednesday.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Henrique, Heleno, Hernandez; Marcinho, Erick, Cittadini, Abner; Nikao, Terans, De Souza
Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Mariano, Rabello, Alonso, Arana; Jair, Allan, Vargas; Zaracho, Keno, Hulk
We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-3 Atletico Mineiro
Athletico Paranaense will have to throw caution to the wind in a bid to gain a foothold in the final, but their desperate need for goals could leave them exposed defensively, and we think that will allow Atletico Mineiro to ease to a comfortable victory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
