Austin FC will try to move off the bottom of the Western Conference when they welcome Portland Timbers to the Q2 stadium on Saturday.
The hosts are on a terrible run of form, but the visitors are not doing much better as they attempt to hang on to their place in the playoffs.
Match preview
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Austin finally managed to score on Wednesday after two blanks in their previous matches, but it ultimately came to nothing as they lost to the Vancouver Whitecaps.
The match represented their best chance of breaking their awful run of results, as they took on the side one place above them at home, and when captain Alex Ring headed the expansion side ahead late in the first half, it looked as though they may do exactly that.
Everything unravelled once again, however, in the second half. Vancouver equalised from a corner early on and, after Jon Gallagher and Tomas Pochettino had spurned chances to restore the lead, the Verde & Black were caught on the break, with Brian White able to finish into an empty net to seal a 2-1 victory.
That result makes it seven losses in their last eight games and home advantage might not help them in this match, as their poor form also equates to disappointing home form, with five of those seven defeats actually coming on their own turf.
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While not to the level of their opponents, Portland's form does not make for especially pleasant reading either, with just one win in their last six MLS matches.
That run includes a chastening 6-2 dismantling at home by Seattle Sounders last weekend, but the Timbers were impressively able to bounce back from that when they travelled to Sporting Kansas City on Wednesday.
Kansas went into the game as Western Conference leaders, but it was the visitors who led for much of the game, thanks to Felipe Mora's goal after 17 minutes.
Diego Valeri could have sealed the win with a one-on-one deep into the second half and was then punished for his miss when Sporting equalised through Daniel Salloi in the 92nd minute.
Portland might have taken a 1-1 draw before the game, though, and it will establish some confidence in the team ahead of a very winnable clash.
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Team News
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Austin were relieved that recent signing Sebastian Driussi was able to start against the Caps, having hobbled off in the previous game, and he will likely lead the line again after picking up an assist on his first real appearance for the team.
Cecilio Dominguez was subbed off at the half-hour mark; the Paraguayan did not appear to come off for an injury, though he was held out of the starting lineup in a recent match due to a lingering bout of illness, so that may have played a part.
There are still plenty of absentees - such as Aaron Schoenfeld, Ben Sweat and Danny Hoesen - but centre-back Julio Cascante will be able to return after having served his one-match suspension for a red card.
The Timbers are also without a number of players; Jeff Attinella and Andy Polo are out for the season after undergoing surgeries, and Eryk Williamson remains sidelined due to health and safety protocols after testing positive for COVID-19.
Goalkeeper Steve Clark did make his return in the game against Kansas, though, having recovered from a right thigh injury.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Besler, Cascante, Jimenez; Pereira, Ring; Fagundez, Pochettino, Dominguez; Driussi
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Clark; Van Rankin, Tuiloma, Zuparic, Bravo; D. Chara, Paredes, Zambrano; Loria, Mora, Asprilla
We say: Austin FC 1-1 Portland Timbers
Austin are long overdue a draw and this seems like the kind of match to provide one. Portland will have mixed emotions after their game at Kansas and while the Texans are struggling at the moment, they won the only meeting between these sides by a 4-1 margin.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.19%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
