Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 40.29%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.19%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.