Embroiled in a fight against relegation to the UEFA Nations League's lowest level, Azerbaijan and Estonia will clash in Qabala on Saturday afternoon.
Sitting third in League C Group 1, the Estonians will seal survival if they avoid defeat; while their hosts must win to defy the drop into League D.
Match preview
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In their third successive League C campaign, Azerbaijan sit rock-bottom of Group 1, yet to pick up a point from four fixtures and with time running out to save themselves from demotion.
The Azeris have certainly struggled to make their mark in the 2024-25 Nations League so far, losing 3-1 to both Sweden and Estonia - and twice to Slovakia.
Having been hired to improve Azerbaijan's fortunes, former European Championship winner Fernando Santos has proved unable to spark a revival, and they are on the brink of being pitched against minnows such as San Marino next time around.
Two of the teams that finish last in their League C groups - those with the worst records after all six matches - will be relegated next week, so Santos and co must at least win one of their last two to have any chance of survival.
Currently, they trail second-placed Luxembourg by two points in that four-nation mini-league, in which they also have the worst goal difference.
Azerbaijan's last success of any kind came at home to Kazakhstan in a June friendly, though they did take four points off Estonia in Euro 2024 qualifying before losing in Tallinn last month.
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On that occasion, the hosts had only one-third of the ball, but they still secured maximum points thanks to goals from Ioan Yakovlev, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy and Rocco Robert Shein.
That remains Estonia's sole win this season, having twice lost 3-0 to promotion favourites Sweden after kicking off with a home defeat to Slovakia.
Having risen up the ranks by topping their League D table in the 2022-23 Nations League, the Blueshirts have been handed a reality check in Europe's third tier.
Jurgen Henn's side have conceded an average of two goals per game to this point, and they must now finish with two tough road trips: after travelling east to Qabala, they are bound for Slovakia on Tuesday.
In June 2023, when they last paid a visit to Azerbaijan during European Championship qualifying, Estonia came away with one point - and a repeat result this weekend would preserve their League C status.
Team News
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After Fernando Santos initially made six changes to the Azerbaijan squad he called up in October, Emin Mahmudov and Rustam Ahmadzada then withdrew due to injury, being replaced by Zira midfielder Ismayil Ibrahimli and Qarabag's Musa Gurbanli - the latter could deputise for suspended striker Mahir Emreli.
Centre-back Bahlul Mustafazada, who was sidelined last month, now returns and could feature at the heart of the hosts' defence, but Ankaragucu forward Renat Dadashov is a surprise exclusion.
With Mehdi Jannatov dropped after shipping 11 goals in four Nations League matches, none of the three goalkeepers selected have much experience: Rza Jafarov made his debut earlier this year but still has only one cap; Aydin Bayramov and Nijat Mehbaliyev are yet to play for the senior team.
Meanwhile, Estonia have been preparing for their final Group 1 games at a training camp in Cyprus, where Marten Kuusk has been the most notable injury absentee.
Experienced forwards Erik Sorga and Rauno Sappinen are not involved either, so Alex Matthias Tamm or 23-goal leading active scorer Henri Anier should start up front.
Rocco Robert Shein could come back into the visitors' midfield, having served a one-match suspension against Sweden.
Azerbaijan possible starting lineup:
Jafarov; Mustafazada, B. Huseynov, Kryvotsyuk; Aliyev, Nuriyev, Isayev, Cafarguliyev; Sheydayev, Gurbanli, Bayramov
Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Peetson, Tamm, Mets, Schjonning-Larsen; Ainsalu, Shein; Yakovlev, Vetkal, Sinyavskiy; Anier
We say: Azerbaijan 2-1 Estonia
A long-awaited win could be on the cards for Azerbaijan, as they have the benefit of home advantage and Estonia do not tend to travel well.
Neither side is watertight in defence, so goals are surely guaranteed at Qabala City Stadium, where the hosts can keep hopes of League C survival alive.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
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