MX23RW : Thursday, January 30 21:19:12| >> :60:104:104:
Lithuania national football team
Baltic Cup | Final
Jun 11, 2024 at 5pm UK
S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas
Estonia national football team

Lithuania
1 - 1
Estonia

Matulevicius (84')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Anders Lepik (82')
Paskotsi (50'), Schjonning-Larsen (71'), Vetkal (90+2')
Estonia win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Baltic Cup clash between Lithuania and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lithuania

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Latvia 0-2 Lithuania
Saturday, June 8 at 2pm in Baltic Cup
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Estonia

All competitions
Baltic Cup
Last Game: Estonia 4-1 Faroe Islands
Saturday, June 8 at 5pm in Baltic Cup
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Belgium81820
2Austria81019
3Sweden8210
4Azerbaijan8-107
5Estonia8-201

We said: Lithuania 2-1 Estonia

 Lithuania's good form should see them come into the match as favourites, especially considering that they have been strong defensively in their recent outings. Contrastingly, Estonia have been porous defensively as of late, and this could see them struggle in the final. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 51.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 22.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Estonia win it was 0-1 (7.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result
LithuaniaDrawEstonia
51.28% (2.704 2.7) 25.78% (-0.729 -0.73) 22.94% (-1.973 -1.97)
Both teams to score 47.4% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.55% (1.102 1.1)55.45% (-1.099 -1.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.36% (0.895 0.9)76.65% (-0.89200000000001 -0.89)
Lithuania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.33% (1.662 1.66)21.67% (-1.659 -1.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.19% (2.477 2.48)54.82% (-2.473 -2.47)
Estonia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.52% (-1.218 -1.22)39.48% (1.222 1.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.83% (-1.149 -1.15)76.17% (1.153 1.15)
Score Analysis
    Lithuania 51.27%
    Estonia 22.94%
    Draw 25.78%
LithuaniaDrawEstonia
1-0 @ 13.08% (0.09 0.09)
2-0 @ 10% (0.546 0.55)
2-1 @ 9.3% (0.214 0.21)
3-0 @ 5.1% (0.513 0.51)
3-1 @ 4.74% (0.332 0.33)
3-2 @ 2.2% (0.086 0.09)
4-0 @ 1.95% (0.28 0.28)
4-1 @ 1.81% (0.208 0.21)
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 51.27%
1-1 @ 12.16% (-0.32 -0.32)
0-0 @ 8.56% (-0.37 -0.37)
2-2 @ 4.32% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 25.78%
0-1 @ 7.95% (-0.625 -0.63)
1-2 @ 5.65% (-0.346 -0.35)
0-2 @ 3.7% (-0.425 -0.43)
1-3 @ 1.75% (-0.17 -0.17)
2-3 @ 1.34% (-0.059 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.15% (-0.174 -0.17)
Other @ 1.41%
Total : 22.94%

How you voted: Winner SF1 vs Winner SF2

Winner Semi-final 1
62.5%
Draw
37.5%
Winner Semi-final 2
0.0%
8
Head to Head
Nov 19, 2022 2pm
Third Place Final
Estonia
2-0
Lithuania
Zenjov (65'), Peetson (89')
Jun 1, 2021
5pm
Group Stage
Lithuania  
vs.
E
   Estonia
Oct 7, 2020 5pm
Friendlies 2
Estonia
1-3
Lithuania
Marin (59')
Anders Lepik (51'), Marin (72')
Novikovas (14', 46'), Sirgedas (32')
Mar 31, 2020 5pm
Friendlies 2
Estonia
P-P
Lithuania
Sep 5, 2015 5pm
Qualifiers
Estonia
1-0
Lithuania
Vassiljev (71')
Purje (79'), Dmitrijev (87')

Matulevicius (30'), Zaliukas (65'), Cesnauskis (69')
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