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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Azerbaijan national football team
Nations League | League C
Sep 5, 2024 at 5pm UK
Tofiq Bahramov adina Respublika stadionu (Baki (Baku))
Sweden national football team

Azerbaijan
1 - 3
Sweden

Dadasov (82')
Dadasov (49'), Dzhenetov (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Isak (65', 71'), Gyokeres (80' pen.)
Wahlqvist (59'), Saletros (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League clash between Azerbaijan and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Azerbaijan

All competitions
Last Game: Azerbaijan 3-2 Kazakhstan
Tuesday, June 11 at 3pm in International Friendlies
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Belgium81820
2Austria81019
3Sweden8210
4Azerbaijan8-107
5Estonia8-201

Sweden

All competitions
Last Game: Sweden 0-3 Serbia
Saturday, June 8 at 5pm in International Friendlies
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Belgium81820
2Austria81019
3Sweden8210
4Azerbaijan8-107
5Estonia8-201

We said: Azerbaijan 1-2 Sweden

 After beating Thursday's visitors 3-0 recently, Azerbaijan will be confident of repeating the trick in the Nations League this time around. That being said, the Blue and Yellow are a different beast now and should have enough quality in attacking areas to secure an opening-round victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 51.96%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 24.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Sweden win was 1-2 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.

Result
AzerbaijanDrawSweden
51.96% (1.125 1.13) 23.12% (-0.522 -0.52) 24.93% (-0.602 -0.6)
Both teams to score 57.88% (1.14 1.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.32% (1.8 1.8)42.67% (-1.799 -1.8)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.92% (1.766 1.77)65.08% (-1.765 -1.77)
Azerbaijan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.52% (1.077 1.08)16.47% (-1.078 -1.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.81% (1.91 1.91)46.19% (-1.909 -1.91)
Sweden Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.3% (0.47799999999999 0.48)30.7% (-0.477 -0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.04% (0.562 0.56)66.96% (-0.562 -0.56)
Score Analysis
    Azerbaijan 51.96%
    Sweden 24.93%
    Draw 23.12%
AzerbaijanDrawSweden
2-1 @ 9.71% (0.057 0.06)
1-0 @ 9.12% (-0.402 -0.4)
2-0 @ 8.22% (-0.061 -0.06)
3-1 @ 5.84% (0.238 0.24)
3-0 @ 4.94% (0.138 0.14)
3-2 @ 3.45% (0.184 0.18)
4-1 @ 2.63% (0.196 0.2)
4-0 @ 2.23% (0.139 0.14)
4-2 @ 1.55% (0.135 0.14)
5-1 @ 0.95% (0.101 0.1)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 51.96%
1-1 @ 10.77% (-0.32 -0.32)
2-2 @ 5.73% (0.108 0.11)
0-0 @ 5.06% (-0.415 -0.42)
3-3 @ 1.36% (0.09 0.09)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 23.12%
1-2 @ 6.36% (-0.106 -0.11)
0-1 @ 5.97% (-0.405 -0.41)
0-2 @ 3.53% (-0.189 -0.19)
1-3 @ 2.5% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.26% (0.072 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.39% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 2.92%
Total : 24.93%

How you voted: Azerbaijan vs Sweden

Azerbaijan
21.0%
Draw
13.3%
Sweden
65.7%
210
Head to Head
Nov 16, 2023 5pm
Group Stage
Azerbaijan
3-0
Sweden
Mahmudov (3', 89'), Dadasov (6')
Seydayev (29'), Mahammadaliyev (72'), Krivotsyuk (90+2')
Mustafazada (57')

Kulusevski (46'), Cajuste (52'), Andersson (56')
> Preview
Mar 27, 2023 7.45pm
Group Stage
Sweden
5-0
Azerbaijan
Forsberg (38'), Mustafazada (65' og.), Gyokeres (79'), Karlsson (88'), Elanga (89')
> Preview
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