Bayer Leverkusen take on Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with both sides looking to secure European qualification places.
A point would all but ensure that Leverkusen qualify for the Europa League, while Union Berlin need to win to be able to overtake Leverkusen on the final day of the campaign.
Match preview
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Leverkusen missed an excellent opportunity to mathematically confirm their place in next season's Europa League by failing to beat Werder Bremen in a 0-0 draw away from home last weekend.
Bremen had lost seven successive Bundesliga matches ahead of the meeting and had slipped perilously close to the relegation places as a result, with Florian Kohfeldt understandably setting his side up to avoid yet another defeat.
The onus was on Hannes Wolf's side to break the hosts down, then, which they ultimately failed to do. Leon Bailey fired straight at Jiri Pavlenka in the early exchanges, while Florian Wirtz's simple finish from close range was correctly disallowed due to the Leverkusen midfielder's foot being in an offside position.
Wendell spurned Leverkusen's only clear-cut chance in the second half, with Pavlenka grateful to see another effort fly comfortably within his vicinity. Eren Dinkci saw red in injury time for a cynical foul on Nadiem Amiri, but there was simply not enough time remaining for Wolf's side to take advantage.
Another draw would probably suit the 40-year-old fine on Saturday, though, as it would ensure that they head into the final day at least three points clear of Borussia Monchengladbach while possessing a superior goal difference.
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Union Berlin, however, must beat Leverkusen on Saturday if they are to have any chance of qualifying for the Europa League, although they will still have a chance of competing in Europe for the first time in the club's history if they can finish seventh to qualify for next season's inaugural UEFA Europa Conference League.
Urs Fischer's side are level on points with Gladbach, who currently occupy the Conference League qualification position, but remain behind them on goal difference after both sides lost last weekend.
Indeed, Wolfsburg proved too strong for Union Berlin, with Josip Brekalo scoring his first ever Bundesliga hat-trick. The Croatian forward put the Wolves into an early lead with a whipped strike into the top corner from outside of the area, before adding two scrappier efforts after the break to secure an important win for his side.
Given that this is still only Union Berlin's second ever Bundesliga campaign, it has been a successful one for Fischer and his players regardless of what happens in their final two matches.
However, having been in the top half of the table for the vast majority of the season, the 55-year-old will be keen to finish there, with any place in Europe representing a sizable cherry on top of that achievement.
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Team News
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Leverkusen lost Bailey, Daley Sinkgraven and Kerem Demirbay to injury during the draw against Bremen, with Moussa Diaby, Wendell and Charles Aranguiz likely to replace them from the start against Union Berlin.
Lucas Alario, Timothy Fosu-Mensah, Lars Bender, Julian Baumgartlinger and Santiago Arias all remain sidelined and are unlikely to feature again this season.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, had to substitute Marcus Ingvartsen against Wolfsburg due to a muscle problem, with Keita Endo, Julian Ryerson and Marius Bulter hoping to replace him from the start against Leverkusen.
Jakob Busk, Florian Hubner, Grischa Promel, Cedric Teuchert, Leon Dajaku and Anthony Ujah are all injury doubts and are unlikely to travel to Leverkusen, but Max Kruse should be fit to start after recovering from his knock.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tah, Dragovic, Tapsoba, Wendell; Aranguiz, Palacios; Bellarabi, Wirtz, Diaby; Schick
Union Berlin possible starting lineup:
Luthe; Friedrich, Knoche, Schlotterbeck; Trimmel, Lenz, Gentner, Griesbeck, Ryerson; Kruse, Pohjanpalo
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Union Berlin
We can envisage a closely fought affair, with Leverkusen ultimately getting the point which they will likely be looking for in order to take a huge step towards Europa League qualification.
Indeed, they have been much tougher to beat since Wolf replaced Peter Bosz as interim manager last month, while only four sides have lost fewer Bundesliga games than Union Berlin this season.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 65.21%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 14.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.53%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 0-1 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
