Lazio take on Bayern Munich at the Stadio Olimpico on Tuesday in the first leg of their Champions League last-16 knockout tie.
Lazio finished second behind Borussia Dortmund in Group F to qualify for the knockout stages for the first time since 2000, with reigning champions Bayern comfortably topping Group A.
Match preview
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After a slow start to the current campaign, Lazio's 1-0 win over Sampdoria on Saturday moved Simone Inzaghi's side into the top four of Serie A.
Lazio were deserved winners on the day and unfortunate not to win by a more comfortable margin, restricting Claudio Ranieri's visitors to zero shots on target while having six themselves, with former Liverpool midfielder Luis Alberto's first-half strike proving to be the pivotal one.
Despite ultimately progressing out of a fairly generous group alongside Dortmund, Club Brugge and Zenit St. Petersburg with an unbeaten record, Inzaghi's side were made to work very hard for second spot, almost coming unstuck against ten-man Brugge on the final matchday.
However, the Italians are currently playing with far more confidence than they were at that stage of the season, and may well be coming up against Bayern at precisely the right moment.
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Indeed, Bayern's form is not as strong at present as it was during the autumn and winter when they took a phenomenal 16 points from their Champions League group.
The Bavarians' lead at the top of the Bundesliga has been wiped to two points ahead of RB Leipzig after a disappointing 3-3 draw at home to Arminia Bielefeld was followed up by a 2-1 loss at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday.
Bayern's defensive vulnerabilities remained clear for anyone to see, with Daichi Kamada and Amin Younes finding too much space in the opposition penalty area to give Adi Hutter's side a 2-0 lead heading into the half-time interval, with Robert Lewandowski's 26th league goal of the season ultimately in vein.
However, Bayern are a different beast on the continent, remaining unbeaten in their last 17 Champions League games as well as recently winning the Club World Cup. If they can defend with more organisation and determination, their offence should carry them into the quarter-finals.
Lazio Champions League form: WDDWDD
Lazio form (all competitions): WLWWLW
Bayern Munich Champions League form: WWWWDW
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WWWWDL
Team News
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Lazio are likely to be without Luiz Felipe, Stefan Radu, Thomas Strakosha and Silvio Proto for the visit of Bayern due to injury.
Ciro Immobile and Joaquin Correa should start in tandem in attack as Inzaghi looks to exploit Bayern's high line with the duo's searing pace.
Bayern, meanwhile, are without several first-team players, including Benjamin Pavard and Thomas Muller, due to COVID-19.
Corentin Tolisso, Serge Gnabry, Douglas Costa, Alexander Nubel and Tanguy Nianzou will not travel due to injury.
Leon Goretzka and Javi Martinez both returned from injury during the defeat to Frankfurt, though, so could come into the starting XI to bolster Bayern's midfield.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Patric, Acerbi, Musacchio; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Lucas, Alberto, Marusic; Correa, Immobile
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Sule, Boateng, Alaba, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka, Martinez; Sane, Lewandowski, Coman
We say: Lazio 1-2 Bayern Munich
While Bayern are struggling a little in terms of player availability and a soft underbelly in defence, we still expect their offence to be too strong for Lazio on Tuesday.
Lewandowski continues to score goals regardless of what is going on behind him, so it is almost impossible to envisage Bayern not coming away with at least one away goal.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 42.34%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 35.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.45%) and 1-3 (5.18%). The likeliest Lazio win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
