Birmingham City play host to Luton Town on Saturday afternoon sitting in the Championship relegation zone after four matches without a win.
While the Hatters have gone three games without success, Nathan Jones's side still remain six points above the bottom three.
Match preview
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Having witnessed their side show more ambition in the final third against Bournemouth last weekend, some Birmingham supporters will regard a 3-2 defeat as a step in the right direction.
However, picking up just one league win in 11 matches has finally caught up with Blues, who now find themselves occupying 23rd position in the standings.
While there is time for Aitor Karanka's side to get back on track, the Spaniard knows that it will not be easy to change the mentality of a squad which is well stocked with quality players.
Scott Hogan's double at the Vitality Stadium took him to five strikes for the season, taking him clear at the top of the goalscoring charts.
Nevertheless, the fact that no other player has netted more than three times tells the story of Birmingham's season, increasing the need for a plot twist at St Andrew's on Saturday.
Unlike their hosts, Luton have enjoyed a relatively stress-free campaign in the second tier after miraculously avoiding relegation in 2019-20.
Although a surprise bid for the playoffs was once on the agenda, Jones will have few complaints if the club can keep themselves away from a battle for survival.
On the back of three defeats from five matches, that is a scenario which appears less likely, upping the stakes ahead of their trip to the West Midlands.
Just 12 points have been collected from their last 10 fixtures in the Championship, and maintaining that ratio will be more than enough to keep the club out of trouble.
However, a third defeat in four games would cause concern at Kenilworth Road, particularly with a number of meetings against potential rivals just around the corner.
Birmingham City Championship form: LWLDDL
Birmingham City form (all competitions): LWLDDL
Luton Town Championship form: WLWLLD
Luton Town form (all competitions): LWLLLD
Team News
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Karanka has previously shown a preference to naming a settled side, an approach which could lead to the same Birmingham XI this weekend.
However, recent additions Yan Valery, Rekeem Harper and Sam Cosgrove are all pushing for their first starts for Blues.
Defender Marc Roberts remains absent as he serves the second of his two-match suspension.
Tom Ince is pushing for his full debut for Luton after arriving on loan from Stoke City.
Jones could stick with the same team which drew with Huddersfield, providing that the Hatters do not have to contend with any late fitness issues.
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Dean, Friend, Pedersen; Gardner, San Jose, Sunjic; Sanchez, Hogan, Bela
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Pearson, Lockyer, Bradley, Potts; Mpanzu, Berry, Dewsbury-Hall; Cornick, Collins, Clark
We say: Birmingham City 1-1 Luton Town
For the first time this season, Luton are having to worry about the clubs behind them, something which could lead to a change in approach by Jones. With that in mind, we feel that the visitors will be satisfied with ensuring that they earn a share of the spoils against their struggling hosts.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 37.16%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 32.55% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.36%) and 1-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (12.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Luton Town in this match.
